Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction 9/28/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Packers vs Cowboys Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, September 28th at the AT&T Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Dallas Cowboys Preview

The Dallas Cowboys have a 1-2 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place of the NFC East. They are 1-2 ATS, 1-2 in Over/Under and have a 1-0 home record and 0-2 away record. The Cowboys are coming off a 14-31 road loss to Chicago Bears and are playing the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers next.

Offensively, the Cowboys average 24.7 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 30.7 points per game, which is 27th. Dallas averages 393.7 total yards per game, with 125.0 rushing yards and 268.7 passing yards per game. They allow 397.7 total yards per game, with 125.0 rushing and 268.7 passing yards per game.

Dak Prescott leads the Cowboys with 800 passing yards and 71.4% completed passes. Javonte Williams leads the team in rushing yards, with 227, while CeeDee Lamb has a team-high 16 caught passes for 222 receiving yards. Defensively, Kenneth Murray has a team-high 22 total tackles, 13 of them solo. Kenny Clark leads the Cowboys in sacks, with one, while Donovan Wilson has one interception.

Green Bay Packers Preview

The Green Bay Packers have a 2-1 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the NFC North. They are 2-1 ATS, 0-3 in Over/Under and have a 2-0 home record and 0-1 away record. The Packers are coming off a 13-10 away loss to the Cleveland Browns and are playing the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals next.

Offensively, the Packers average 21.3 points per game, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 14.7 points per game, which is 1st. Green Bay averages 300.0 total yards per game, with 98.0 rushing yards and 202.0 passing yards per game. They allow 232.3 total yards per game, with 97.7 rushing and 134.7 passing yards per game.

Jordan Love leads the Packers with 663 passing yards and 67.9% completed passes. Josh Jacobs leads the team in rushing yards, with 180, while Tucker Kraft has a team-high 11 caught passes for 169 receiving yards, and has two touchdowns. Defensively, Quay Walker has a team-high 31 total tackles, 16 of them solo. Rashan Gary leads the Packers in sacks, with 4.5, while Xavier McKinney and Evan Williams each have one interception

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends: Week 4

Why the Dallas Cowboys will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last six games between the Packers and Cowboys.
• The Packers have lost seven of their last eight Week 4 games against NFC East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Packers and Cowboys.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last two games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Cowboys have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as home underdogs following a road loss.

Why the Green Bay Packers will win

• The Packers have won 10 of their last 11 games against the Cowboys.
• The Cowboys have lost four of their last five games.
• The Packers have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Cowboys.
• The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games against NFC North opponents.
• The Packers have won the first half in each of their last eight games as favorites against NFC East opponents.
• The Cowboys have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Packers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games as favorites against NFC East opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Cowboys’ last eight games as underdogs following a road loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Packers’ last four games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Twelve of the last 16 Sunday games at AT&T Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• George Pickens has scored a touchdown in five of his last six Sunday appearances.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 271+ passing yards in 10 of his last 11 home appearances.
• George Pickens has recorded 68+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last six Sunday appearances.
• George Pickens has recorded 68+ receiving yards in each of his last six Sunday appearances.
• Miles Sanders has recorded 17+ rushing yards in each of his 12 previous September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 24+ completions in 10 of his last 11 Sunday home appearances.
• Heading into Week 4, Brandon Aubrey ranks T1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (4) this season.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

• Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last 10 games against NFC opponents.
• Josh Jacobs has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of his six previous Week 4 appearances.
• Josh Jacobs has recorded 81+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances against NFC East opponents.
• Jordan Love has recorded 224+ passing yards in each of the Packers’ last four games as road favorites against NFC opponents.
• Josh Jacobs has recorded 90+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Packers’ last four games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• Jordan Love has recorded 19+ completions in each of the Packers’ last three road games against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Rashan Gary ranks 1st in the NFL in sacks (4.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Cowboys – four different players have recorded 60+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 4.
• Heading into Week 4, the Cowboys rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (288.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Packers rank 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game (14.7) this season.
• Heading into Week 4, the Packers rank T1st in the NFL in Q2 opponent points per game (2.0) this season.

Packers vs Cowboys Prediction

In their previous meeting last season, the Packers won 48-32 on the road. They are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Cowboys, and have won and covered their last five visits in Dallas. Their last 5 meetings have gone over the total. 

In this Packers vs Cowboys Prediction, the Packers are coming as -7-point road favorites, with the total set at 47.5 points. I don’t trust the Packers as road favorites, as they have lost their only road game this season, and I don’t trust a Cowboys team that struggles defensively either, so I will pass on the side. Both teams are combined 5-1 to the under this season, with the Packers being the best defensive team in the NFL. I expect a low-scoring game today, so take the under 47.5 points in this one.