Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Prediction 12/25/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders meet in week 17 NFL action from Northwest Stadium on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders prediction.

Dallas Cowboys Recap

The Dallas Cowboys come into this game looking to bounce back from a 34-17 loss at the hands of the Chargers last time out to sit at 6-8-1 this season. After this game, the Cowboys will head on the road for a game against the New York Giants.

Cowboys Lose 3 In A Row

Dak Prescott has thrown for 4,175 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 68.5% passing while Javonte Williams leads the Cowboys in rushing with 1,147 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns so far this season. George Pickens leads the Cowboys in receiving with 88 catches, 1,342 yards and 9 touchdowns while Jake Ferguson has 80 catches for 589 yards and 7 TDs. CeeDee Lamb has 69 grabs for 1,027 yards while Ryan Flournoy has 407 receiving yards with 4 TDs and KaVontae Turpin has 310 receiving yards. Three more Cowboys have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Kenneth Murray Jr. has a team-high 77 total tackles including 37 solo tackles while James Houston has a team-high 5.5 sacks and the Cowboys’ defense as a whole has combined for 29 sacks and 6 interceptions so far this season. 

Washington Commanders Recap

The Washington Commanders come into this game looking to rebound from a 29-18 loss at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles last time out to sit at 4-11 this season. After this game the Commanders will have a rematch against the Eagles on the road to close out the regular season.

Commanders Drop 9 Of Last 10

Jayden Daniels has thrown for 1,262 yards, 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 60.6% passing while Marcus Mariota has thrown for 1,695 yards, 10 touchdowns and 7 INTs on 61.2% passing. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has a team-high 671 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns for the Commanders on the ground. Deebo Samuel leads Washington’s receivers with 68 grabs for 639 yards and 5 touchdowns while Zach Ertz has 504 receiving yards and three more Commanders have 200+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Bobby Wagner has a team-high 147 total tackles in addition to 73 solo tackles and 4 sacks while Dorance Armstrong has 5.5 sacks. Von Miller has a team-high 7 sacks while Jacob Martin also has 5.5 sacks as well and Mike Sainristil has 4 interceptions. As a unit, Washington’s group has combined for 33 sacks and 7 interceptions so far this season.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Betting Trends: Week 17

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Cowboys’ last five games.
• The Cowboys have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Week 17 games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Cowboys’ last five games.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 17 games.
• The Cowboys have lost the first half in four of their last five road games against NFC opponents.
• The home team has won the first quarter in seven of the last eight games between the Cowboys and Commanders.

Why the Dallas Cowboys will win

• The Cowboys have won each of their last nine games as favorites against NFC East opponents.
• The Commanders have lost each of their last eight games as home underdogs before a Division game.
• The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last six road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games without Terry McLaurin.
• The Cowboys have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games played as favorites on the East Coast.
• The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last nine games as road favorites following a loss.
• The Commanders have lost the first quarter in each of their last eight games as home underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Cowboys’ last seven road games without Trevon Diggs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Commanders’ last six games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last seven games between NFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Chris Rodriguez has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last four home games.
• Terry McLaurin has recorded 53+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 appearances with the Commanders as home underdogs against NFC opponents.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has recorded 30+ rushing yards in seven of the Commanders’ last eight games against NFC opponents.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 56+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances against the Cowboys.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt has four rushing touchdowns through his first five career games – most by any player since De’Von Achane, (2023).

Dallas Cowboys Player Prop Facts

• George Pickens has scored a touchdown in each of his last five road appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• CeeDee Lamb has recorded 89+ receiving yards in each of the Cowboys’ last six Thursday road games.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 294+ passing yards in five of his last six December appearances against NFC opponents.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 11+ rushing yards in each of his last five December road appearances.
• Dak Prescott has recorded 24+ completions in each of his last four December appearances against NFC East opponents.
• CeeDee Lamb has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Cowboys’ last six Thursday road games.
• Heading into Week 17, CeeDee Lamb is the only player to have recorded 1000+ receiving yards in each of the last five seasons. (including 2025).

Matchup/League Facts

• Commanders – five different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
• Commanders – four different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 17.
• Heading into Week 17, the Cowboys rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards per game (274.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 17, the Cowboys rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (257.8) this season.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders Prediction

I’m leaning towards Dallas here. It’s interesting how this Christmas day schedule has fallen apart, and I’m sure the schedule makers didn’t anticipate that Jayden Daniels would miss this game and that Dallas would be out of playoff contention. That being said, the Cowboys still have a lethal offense when it’s on point and I think the Cowboys take out some frustration here. Give me Dallas.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Dallas -9.5