Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction 9/13/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans meet in week 1 NFL action from NRG Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans prediction.

Buffalo Bills Team Preview

The Buffalo Bills enter the 2026 season entering a new era under head coach Joe Brady following a 12-5 campaign in 2025 that ended with a Divisional Round playoff loss to the Denver Broncos. In 2025, Josh Allen directed an offense that featured James Cook’s league-leading 1,621 rushing yards alongside Khalil Shakir’s team-leading 719 receiving yards, while Gregory Rousseau paced the pass rush with seven sacks. During the 2026 offseason, general manager Brandon Beane promoted Brady from offensive coordinator to head coach and overhauled the roster depth, adding pass rusher T.J. Parker and defensive backs Davison Igbinosun and Maxwell Hairston, alongside wide receivers Skyler Bell and Mecole Hardman Jr. Led by Allen under center and Brady steering the entire team, the Bills head into 2026 aiming to regain the AFC East crown and push deep into the postseason.

Houston Texans Team Preview

The Houston Texans enter the 2026 season looking to build on a 12-5 campaign in 2025 under DeMeco Ryans that included a Wild Card victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers before a Divisional Round loss. In 2025, C.J. Stroud passed for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns while Nico Collins recorded 1,117 receiving yards, and Danielle Hunter led the defense with 15 sacks. During the 2026 offseason, general manager Nick Caserio overhauled the offensive line by trading for running back David Montgomery, signing guard Wyatt Teller, and trading up in the first round of the draft to select Georgia Tech guard Keylan Rutledge at No. 26 overall. Backed by an upgraded front five to protect Stroud and a defense led by Hunter, the Texans head into 2026 aiming to defend their AFC South title and push deep into the postseason.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Bills and Texans.
• The Bills have lost each of their last six games at Reliant Stadium.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the Texans’ last six Week 1 games.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games without Dawson Knox.
• The Texans have won the first half in each of their last six home games against AFC East opponents.
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five home games against AFC East opponents.
• The Texans have won the first quarter in six of their last eight Sunday games as underdogs.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games in September.
• The Texans have lost each of their last four games without Jadeveon Clowney.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games without Jadeveon Clowney.
• The road team has covered the spread in four of the Texans’ last five games.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last four season openers against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their eight previous September games against AFC South opponents.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Week 1 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Bills’ last eight road games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Texans’ last seven games in September have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last four Sunday games at Reliant Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• Nico Collins has scored a touchdown in each of the Texans’ last four home games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• Woody Marks has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 233+ passing yards in six of the Texans’ last seven September games against AFC opponents.
• Woody Marks has recorded 44+ rushing yards in each of his last seven regular season appearances against AFC opponents.
• Kayshon Boutte has recorded 28+ receiving yards in each of his last nine regular season appearances with his team as a home underdog.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Texans’ last seven September games against AFC opponents.
• Ka’imi Fairbairn ranked 1st in the NFL in made field goals (44) last season.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills’ last five regular season games against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Bills’ last nine games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 15+ receiving yards in 14 of the Bills’ last 15 games.
• Josh Allen has recorded 35+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last six September games as road favorites.
• Josh Allen has recorded 232+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last seven Week 1 games.
• D.J. Moore has recorded 50+ rushing and receiving yards in 12 of his last 13 appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• James Cook ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (1621) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texans – 16 different players recorded at least one touchdown last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Texans – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Bills – two different players recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.
• Bills – two different players recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game last season – equal-most in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I think Houston’s defense is still legit, but this is a hard expectation to have to trust CJ Stroud in a big time spot against a formidable Bills team as well. I could see a lot of field goals in this game, so I’m rocking with the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 44.5