Bills vs Vikings Prediction 11/9/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Buffalo Bills and the Minnesota Vikings meet in week 9 NFL action from U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. 

Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction

I’m on Buffalo in this one. This is a matchup between a Buffalo team that relies on their offense to win games while the Vikings lean on one of the best and most well-coached defensive units in the NFL to get to where they’ve gotten up to this point. I’d normally lean defense over offense, but we’ve seen Buffalo lock in in a lot of their recent outings, and I think that the Bills pick up another solid win to build on their record once again. Give me Buffalo here.

Buffalo Bills Recap

The Buffalo Bills come into this game looking to add on to their 36-10 win over Baltimore last time out to sit at 6-1 this season. After this game, Buffalo will head on the road for a game against the New York Jets. Josh Allen has thrown for 1,793 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions while completing 65.9% of his passes to lead the Buffalo Bills passing attack, backed by 135 completions on 205 attempts through seven games played. The Bills’ ground game is spearheaded by James Cook III, who rushes for 707 yards and 7 touchdowns on 138 carries, followed closely by Josh Allen with 270 yards and 9 scores on 55 carries, Ray Davis adding 42 rushing yards on 11 attempts, and Ty Johnson chipping in 10 yards on 6 carries. Through the air, Dalton Kincaid leads the receiving corps with 401 yards and 2 touchdowns on 27 catches, while Khalil Shakir adds 354 yards and 1 score on 27 receptions, Keon Coleman logs 287 yards and 3 scores on 20 catches, DJ Moore adds 260 yards and 2 scores on 16 receptions, and Ty Johnson rounds out key targets with 174 yards on 15 catches. Defensively, Terrel Bernard anchors the Bills squad by logging a team-high 51 total tackles over seven games. Altogether, the Bills’ defensive unit has successfully combined to bring down opposing quarterbacks for 15 sacks, 80 yards lost, and 42 pass deflections while also coming away with 4 total interceptions.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Vikings have lost each of their last seven Monday games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Bills have won each of their last eight games as road favorites before a Division game.
• The Vikings have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games in November.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of the Vikings’ last six games.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in seven of their last nine night games against NFC opponents.
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their last nine November games against NFC opponents.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.

Minnesota Vikings Recap

The Minnesota Vikings come into this game looking to bounce back from a 19-15 loss at the hands of the Detroit Lions, taking their first loss of the season at 6-1. After this game, Minnesota will head on the road for a game against the Green Bay Packers. Kyler Murray has thrown for 1,022 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions while completing 64.9% of his passes to lead the Minnesota Vikings passing attack, backed by 100 completions on 154 attempts through six games played, with Carson Wentz providing supplemental support via 276 passing yards and 3 scores on 23 completions across two games. The Vikings’ ground game is spearheaded by Aaron Jones Sr., who rushes for 458 yards and 2 touchdowns on 110 carries, followed closely by Kyler Murray with 167 yards on 29 carries, Jordan Mason adding 147 rushing yards and 1 touchdown on 38 attempts, and DeeJay Dallas chipping in 14 yards on 4 carries. Through the air, Justin Jefferson leads the receiving corps with 335 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28 catches, while T.J. Hockenson adds 295 yards and 3 scores on 31 receptions, Jordan Addison logs 249 yards and 1 score on 16 catches, Aaron Jones Sr. adds 90 yards on 15 receptions, and Gavin Bartholomew rounds out key targets with 54 yards on 7 catches. Defensively, Blake Cashman anchors the Vikings squad by logging a team-high 64 total tackles over seven games. Altogether, the Vikings’ defensive unit has successfully combined to bring down opposing quarterbacks for 21 sacks, 139 yards lost, and 33 pass deflections while also coming away with 8 total interceptions.

Why the Minnesota Vikings will win

• The Vikings have won each of their last seven games against AFC East opponents.
• The Bills have lost each of their last seven Week 9 road games.
• The Vikings have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home underdogs following a road loss.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games without Dawson Knox.
• The Bills have lost the first quarter in five of their last six games as favorites following a home win.
• The Vikings have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven Monday home games.
• The Vikings have won the first half in five of their last six Monday home games.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Buffalo -3