San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction 5/10/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The San Antonio Spurs and the Minnesota Timberwolves collide in a pivotal Game 4 of the West Semifinals at the Target Center on Sunday night. Here’s a San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction. This article will include a San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Pick.

San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview 

The San Antonio Spurs are now back in the driver’s seat after outlasting the Timberwolves in a 115-108 road win in Game 3 on Friday. Victor Wembanyama dominated this game as he led the way with 39 points, 15 rebounds and five blocks on 13 of 18 shooting; De’Aaron Fox added 17 points with five assists while Stephon Castle tallied 13 points with 12 assists.

As a team, the Spurs shot 46 percent from the field and 12 of 36 from the 3-point line as they opened the game with a ferocious 14-1 run, but they started to get sloppy with the ball and actually trailed going into halftime. However, the Spurs responded with 35 points in the third quarter to lead the rest of the way, thanks largely to Wembenyama, who scored 16 points in the fourth quarter. Check out tonight’s other game betwene the Knicks and Sixers. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Timberwolves will be hoping to square up the series again after falling just short to the Spurs in a tough loss on Friday. Anthony Edwards led the team with 32 points, 14 rebounds and six assists on 12 of 26 shooting; Naz Reid added 18 points with nine rebounds and five assists, while Jaden McDaniels chipped in with 17 points.

As a team, the Timberwolves shot just 38 percent from the field and 14 of 40 from the 3-point line as they weathered an early storm from the Spurs and worked so hard to stay within striking distance the entire game, but they just needed to provide Edwards with more support as Jaden McDaniels shot just five of 22 from the field while Julius Randle shot just three of 12 from the field to finish with 12 points. On the defensive end, the Timberwolves had no answer for the size of the Spurs’ Wembenyama, especially in the fourth quarter where he scored or assisted on 18 of the Spurs’ 29 points.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win

• The Timberwolves have won five of their last six games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Spurs have lost seven of their last eight night games at Target Center.
• The Timberwolves have covered the spread in seven of their last eight playoff home games.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four Western Conference Semifinals games against Northwest Division opponents following a win.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Spurs have won 13 of their last 14 road games against Western Conference opponents.
• The Timberwolves have lost each of their last five playoff home games against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five playoff home games against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Spurs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight playoff road games against Western Conference opponents following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Six of the Spurs’ last seven Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the Timberwolves’ last seven games against the Spurs following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.

Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts

• Anthony Edwards ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for points per game (28.8) this season.
• Jaden McDaniels is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.

San Antonio Spurs Player Facts

• Stephon Castle is one of only five players to have recorded a 40+ point triple-double this season.
• Julian Champagnie is one of only 11 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Timberwolves have allowed the most games with 40+ points (11) this season.
• The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for blocks per game this season (5.8).
• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
• The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).

San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction

The Spurs are still missing David Jones-Garcia, while the Timberwolves are without Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs might have been a little nervous following their loss in the series opener; in the blink of an eye, the Spurs are in prime position to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Anthony Edwards had his best game in this series on Friday, but he needs other players to step up in what is their biggest game of the season.

An upset win for the Timberwolves in this spot would really spice things up and as a basketball fan, I would love to see it, but with the line so short, I have to stick with the Spurs to get the win and cover in this one.

Peter Tran's Pick: San Antonio -4.5