Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Prediction 12/28/2025 Today’s NBA Picks

The Golden State Warriors and the Toronto Raptors collide at the Scotiabank Arena on Sunday night. Here’s a Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Prediction. This article will include a Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Pick.

Golden State Warriors Betting Preview 

The Golden State Warriors haven’t been at their best as they’ve split their last 10 games, but they will be gunning for a season-high fourth straight victory after outlasting the Mavericks in a 126-116 home win on Christmas Day. Stephen Curry led the team with 23 points, De’Anthony Melton added 16 points off the bench, while Jimmy Butler III and Al Horford each scored 14 points.

As a team, the Warriors shot 44 percent from the field and 14 of 50 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 40 points in the first quarter to storm out to a double-digit lead. They kept the pressure on until they led by 17 points late in the third quarter, which was more than enough to hold off a Mavericks team who shot just four of 14 from the 3-point line.

Toronto Raptors Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Toronto Raptors have been in a slump as they’ve lost nine of their last 13 games overall and they will be hoping to bounce back here after getting trounced by the lowly Wizards in a 138-117 road defeat on Friday. Brandon Ingram led the team with 29 points on 10 of 20 shooting, Immanuel Quickley added 25 points with five assists while Scottie Barnes chipped in with 14 points and seven assists.

As a team, the Raptors shot 44 percent from the field and 12 of 36 from the 3-point line as they exploded for 38 points in the third quarter to cut an 11-point halftime deficit to just one point. Only to go ice-cold in the fourth quarter where they got outscored by 17. 36-17. 

Why the Toronto Raptors will win

• The Raptors have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Warriors have lost four of their last five games as road favorites following a home win.
• The Raptors have covered the spread in each of their last six games against the Warriors following a road loss.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games as road favorites following a home win.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Raptors have lost each of their last six games on the first leg of a back-to-back against the Warriors.
• The Warriors have won four of their last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Raptors have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games at Scotiabank Arena following a loss.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in seven of their last eight road games on the first leg of a back-to-back against Eastern Conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Warriors’ last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Raptors’ last five home day games following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.

Toronto Raptors Player Facts

• Sandro Mamukelashvili ranks 3rd amongst qualified Centers for 3P% (41.7%) this season.
• RJ Barrett is one of only 16 qualified Guards in the league shooting at least 50% from the field this season.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Jimmy Butler ranks 21st amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.4) this season.
• Quinten Post ranks 13th amongst qualified Centers for three-pointers made per game (1.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Raptors rank 1st for fast break points per game (18.9) this season.
• The Raptors rank 3rd in the league for opponent three-point percentage this season (34.0%).
• The Warriors rank 30th in the league for Q1 points per game this season (27.0).
• The Warriors rank 30th for points in the paint per game (42.5) this season.

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Prediction

The Warriors are still playing without De’Anthony Melton and Seth Curry, while the Raptors have ruled out Jakob Poeltl and they have upgraded RJ Barrett to questionable for this one. The Raptors are 8-7 at home this season despite their recent slump, but with the line so short, it’s hard to ignore the Warriors, who are coming into this one fresh off a third straight victory.

It’s a small sample size, but based on recent form I would much prefer a play on a well rested Warriors team who just beat the Mavericks, over a struggling Raptors team who just got smashed by the lowly Wizards. With the line so short, I will happily side with the Warriors to take care of business on the road in this spot.

Peter Tran's Pick: Golden State -3.5