Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Prediction 3/25/25 NBA Picks

The Golden State Warriors have been in stellar form as they've won 14 of their last 17 games overall. They will be hoping to bounce back in this one after having their two-game win streak halted by the Hawks in a 124-115 road defeat on Saturday. Jimmy Butler led the team with 25 points and eight assists, Moses Moody added 20 points with five assists while Brandin Podziemski chipped in with 19 points, eight rebounds, and four assists. As a team, the Warriors shot 46 percent from the field and 16 of 38 from the 3-point line as they got off to a terrible start. They allowed 40 points in the first quarter to fall behind by 22 points before they cut the deficit to just eight points with 2:05 remaining. Draymond Green had an off game as he scored just five points with six turnovers while battling foul trouble all night. The Warriors didn't have an answer for the Hawks' Georges Niang who barely missed on his way to 23 points.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been in terrible shape as they have lost 11 of their last 13 games overall, but they will be feeling much better after snapping a 10-game losing streak with a 122-105 home win over the lowly Hornets on Sunday. Andrew Wiggins led the team with 42 points and five assists on 16 of 21 shooting, Tyler Herro added 29 points with six rebounds and three assists while Kel'el Ware and Davion Mitchell chipped in with 12 points apiece. As a team, the Heat shot a sizzling 57 percent from the field and 12 of 29 from the 3-point line as they took control of the contest with a 37-21 second quarter. Before they exploded for 39 points in the third quarter to lead by as many as 24 points. 

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The underdogs have won three of the Warriors' last four games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Warriors' last five games.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Heat have lost each of their last nine night games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Warriors have won each of their last eight games as road favorites after losing as favorites.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in each of their last six games as favorites following a loss.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a win.

The Warriors could be slightly short-handed once again as Stephen Curry is listed as questionable, while the Heat are keeping an eye on Duncan Robinson, who is questionable. The Heat will surely come out swinging in their first game against Jimmy Butler, but it's hard to trust the Heat, who were ice-cold before their win over the Hornets in their last game. In contrast, the Warriors have been playing some of their best basketball of the season and I think they represent great value at the short line even if Curry isn't able to suit up.