Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 2/12/25 NBA Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder (43-9) vs Miami Heat (25-26)

Game Info: Wednesday, February 12, 2025 at 8:00 pm (Paycom Center)

Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 -- Over/Under: 219 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

The Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Wednesday in NBA action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview 

The Miami Heat lost to the Nets and Celtics, and they play the Mavs, Raptors, and Bucks next. The Miami Heat are averaging 110.5 points on 45.6 percent shooting and allowing 110.6 points on 46 percent shooting. Tyler Herro is averaging 23.7 points and 5.6 rebounds, while Bam Adebayo is averaging 16.4 points and 10 rebounds. Terry Rozier is the third double-digit scorer and Nikola Jovic is grabbing 3.9 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc and 79.1 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 35.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.9 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Grizzlies and Pelicans, and they play the Timberwolves, Jazz, and Nets next. The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 117.9 points on 47.5 percent shooting and allowing 104.8 points on 43 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.7 points and 6 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 21.2 points and 5.5 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer and Isaiah Hartenstein is grabbing 12 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 35.6 percent from beyond the arc and 82.5 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 33.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.5 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

  • The Thunder have won each of their last 15 night games against Southeast Division opponents.
  • The Heat have lost 11 of their last 12 night games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Thunder have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
  • The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six night games following a home loss.

Why the Miami Heat will win

  • The Heat have won three of their last five games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
  • The Thunder have lost each of their last four night games against Heat teams that held a losing record.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the last four games between the Heat and Thunder.
  • The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games as favorites on the first leg of a back-to-back.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Thunder rank 1st in the league for steals per game this season (11.1).
  • The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent steals per game this season (6.7).
  • The Heat rank 2nd in the league for opponent free throw attempts per game this season (18.1).
  • The Heat are one of only two teams to lose a game when leading by 20+ points at HT this season.

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report 

The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, and Ousmane Dieng.

The Miami Heat will be without Kevin Love and Dru Smith. Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Tyler Herro are questionable.

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Miami Heat have scored less than 90 points in back-to-back games and that's impressive in today's NBA. I don't expect much of a change in this spot against the Thunder's defense, especially if Herro is still out. The Thunder have a cover percentage of 69.3 percent which is the best in the NBA. The Thunder have covered 18 of their last 25 games as a double-digit favorite. The Thunder are the best bet in the NBA regardless of number, and the Heat's offense is stuck in the 1990s. There's only one way to go in this spot. Give me the Thunder in a blowout.

Randy’s Pick Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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