Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Prediction 7/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 28th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 54-53 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 22-33 home record and are coming off a 2-3 home loss against the Blue Jays. They will face the Braves and the Phillies next.

The Washington Nationals have a .254 batting average this season, .329 OBP and .446 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .295 batting average, adding a team-high 82 RBI. James Wood adds a team-high 30 home runs.

Cade Cavalli (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Washington Nationals, and he has a 7-4 record, 3.58 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays have a 49-58 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL East. They have a 23-28 away record and are coming off a 3-2 road win against the Nationals. They will face the Cardinals and the Astros next.

The Toronto Blue Jays have a .242 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .379 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.14 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Ernie Clement is the team’s best hitter with a .296 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto leads the team in RBI with 65 and adds a team-high 23 home runs.

Shane Bieber (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he has a 2-1 record, 4.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: July 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Cavalli      Record this season: 7-4      ERA: 3.58
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: –

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six night games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Nationals have won each of their last five night games following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last four games following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 4.70
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Nationals: 0-0

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last eight games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as road underdogs against the Nationals.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 Tuesday road games against National League opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last eight games against the Nationals.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games against the Nationals.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Blue Jays and Nationals have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Blue Jays’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Nationals’ last eight games against AL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Blue Jays’ last five night games at Nationals Park.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• James Wood has hit a home run in four of the Nationals’ last five games against AL East opponents.
• Cade Cavalli has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nasim Nunez has recorded two or more hits in each of his last six home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Cade Cavalli has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (38) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Shane Bieber has recorded five or more strikeouts in 31 of his 37 previous road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Urias has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL East opponents.
• Shane Bieber has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Luis Urias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ernie Clement ranks T5th in the league in Hits (119) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (586).
• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (586).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (419).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (419).

Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction

The Blue Jays have won their last four meetings against the Nationals and two of their last three visits in Washington.  

In this Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction, the Nationals are coming as -140 home favorites. I like the pitching in this matchup, as Bieber has given up just one run in his last two starts for the Jays and Cavalli has a 2.00 ERA across his last three starts. The Jays’ offense has been struggling lately, averaging just 2.4 runs per game in their last 10 games and the opening game of the series had just 5 total runs. Take the under 8.5 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 8.5