Tigers vs Guardians Prediction 9/23/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Tigers vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 23rd at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are 85-71 this season after they lost all three games against the Braves by scores of 1-10, 5-6, and 2-6. In their game three loss, Detroit had plenty of base runners, but didn’t score until the ninth in the loss. The Tigers recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Torres and Greene, who both had one RBI in the loss. Detroit started Mize, who allowed five hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Rainey allowed three earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Tigers lost all three against the Guardians and two out of three against the Marlins. Detroit has lost nine of their last ten games, but they are first in the AL Central standings. The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.98 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 743 runs with a .248 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this season. Riley Greene has led Detroit with 34 home runs and 109 RBIs, while Spencer Torkelson has added 31 home runs and 78 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Tarik Skubal, who is 13-5 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP over 189.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 84-72 this year after they won three out of four against Minnesota by scores of 6-2, 6-0, 8-0, and 2-6. In their game four loss, Cleveland led 2-0 in the first inning, but failed to score over the last eight innings in the defeat. The Guardians recorded four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Kwan and Naylor, who both had one RBI in the loss. Cleveland started Cantillo, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 4.1 innings, while Festa picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians won all three against the Tigers and all three against the White Sox. Cleveland has won 10 of their last 11 games and they are second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .240 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 616 runs with a .226 batting average and a .297 on base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez has led Cleveland with 30 home runs and 81 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo has added 26 home runs and 68 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Gavin Williams, who is 11-5 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 161.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians

The Tigers have won each of their last seven road games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
The Guardians have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Tigers following a loss.
The Tigers have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games at Progressive Field following a loss.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games following a road loss.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Guardians’ last six home games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the Tigers’ last five night games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six Tuesday games at Progressive Field.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Tigers’ last five games at Progressive Field.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with the Guardians as home underdogs against AL opponents.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

Spencer Torkelson has hit a home run in two of the Tigers’ last three games as favorites.
Tarik Skubal has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Tigers as favorites against the Guardians.
Parker Meadows has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Jake Rogers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents.

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction 

These two teams come into this series with just one game separating them in the AL Central standings, so this is a massive series for each side. The Tigers are 39-36 on the road this season, while the Guardians are 41-34 at home. Cleveland has been red hot and they are starting Williams, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Detroit is going with Skubal, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five. Detroit is in a bad place right now, but I think Skubal gets them back on track. Take the Tigers -1.5 here.