Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 5/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Monday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Drew Rasmussen for the start here and Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Toronto, Rasmussen is 1-3 with a 4.39 ERA and 18 strikeouts. Kevin Gausman will start for Toronto and is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and 43 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Rays, Gausman is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 26 strikeouts.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on a 4-1 win over Boston last time out to sit at 26-13 this season. After this series, the Rays will head home for a series against the Marlins.

Rays Win 8 Of Last 9

Yandy Diaz has 44 hits with 4 doubles, a triple, 5 home runs and 23 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 46 hits with 3 triples and 11 RBIs. Nick Fortes has 28 hits with 5 doubles, a home run and 8 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 37 hits with 5 doubles, 7 homers and 29 RBIs. Junior Caminero’s also added 37 hits with 3 doubles, 11 home runs and 19 RBIs and Ben WIlliamson has 28 hits with 5 doubles and 13 RBIs.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-1 loss at the hands of the Angels last time out to sit at 18-22 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a series against the Detroit Tigers.

Blue Jays Drop 5 Of Last 7

Andres Gimenez has 32 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 18 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 47 hits with 13 doubles and 12 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 36 hits with 4 doubles, 10 home runs, 26 RBIs and a team-high 46 strikeouts while George Springer also has 5 doubles, 2 homers with 7 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 45 hits with 7 doubles, 2 home runs and 17 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 29 hits with 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: May 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 3.09
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-1

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Rays and Blue Jays.
• The Rays have lost each of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games against AL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 2.95
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-2

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last seven games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last six games against the Rays following a loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six Monday games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Rays’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Blue Jays’ last six games as favorites against the Rays have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last seven night games between the Rays and Blue Jays.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight road games against American League opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against the Rays.
• Ernie Clement has recorded at least one hit in each of the Blue Jays’ last 18 night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of his last three appearances with the Blue Jays as favorites against AL East opponents.
• Ernie Clement ranks T9th in the league in Hits (47) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 17 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Chandler Simpson ranks T5th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (269).
• The Blue Jays rank T29th in the league for triples this season (1).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (46).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (274).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on the under in this game. I just think this is a great pitching matchup between two teams that have been playing in more than their fair share of low-scoring games as of late and I think this is going to be a duel here. So give me the under.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 7.5