Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks

The Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees meet Sunday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. This will be the final installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Rays vs Yankees prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Rays vs Yankees pick. We will examine: 

The Tampa Bay Rays’ recent form and player performance

The New York Yankees’ recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tampa Bay Rays

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Yankees

Recent betting trends in games played between the Rays and Yankees

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Rays vs Yankees game

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Rays managed to get wins in their first two series of 2025 over the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates. After getting swept by the Texas Rangers and losing a series against the Los Angeles Angels, Tampa Bay beat the Braves in a set. Tampa Bay then lost in two of three games against the Red Sox and in three of four outings versus the Yankees across the ensuing pair. The Rays beat the Diamondbacks in a series, then swept the Padres. Unfortunately, the Rays couldn’t capitalize and lost in a sweep versus the Royals. On Friday, the Rays had just one hit in a 3-0 shutout loss. Starter Ryan Pepiot logged 4.1 innings with two earned runs on five hits and two walks with one strikeout. 

In the Saturday game, Tampa Bay eked out a 3-2 victory thanks to two eighth-inning runs. Zack Littell lasted 7.0 innings in the start with two earned runs on three hits. Starter for Sunday will be the Rays’ Taj Bradley. This year, Bradley is 2-2 with a 4.58 ERA in six starts over 35.1 innings. Bradley is 15-21 with a 4.73 ERA in 54 career games (52 starts) at the MLB level. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

Over on the Yankees’ side, they swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the opening series of 2025. New York lost the next series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, then took wins in two of three over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Losses came in the next two series versus the Tigers and Giants before a sweep versus the Royals and a set win over Tampa Bay. After losing a series to the Guardians, New York took wins in two of three over the Blue Jays. The Yankees split their first two outings against the Orioles this past week, then lost the set with a 5-4 defeat on Wednesday. In Friday’s game, New York scored all three of their runs on a Paul Goldschmidt home run. Max Fried bagged 7.0 innings, one hit, and two walks as a starter. On Saturday, the Yankees had a brief 2-1 lead but couldn’t do anything on offense after the fifth. Starter Ryan Yarbrough logged 4.0 innings with one hit, one earned, and three walks. 

It’ll be Will Warren in the starter slot for the Yankees on Sunday. This year, Warren is 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA in six starts and 24.0 innings total. Warren is 1-4 with a 7.91 ERA in 12 career games (11 starts) overall. 

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last eight games as favorites following a loss.
• The Rays have lost six of their last seven day games following a win.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Rays have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against AL East opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games after playing the previous day.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 day games against the Rays at Yankee Stadium following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Rays’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last seven day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last five day games against American League opponents.

Rays vs Yankees Prediction 

I’ll take a stab on the Rays here. You could call it either way, though. Bradley certainly needs some help from the bats, as he’s been pitching reasonably well over his last two starts—but is just 0-1 to show for it. Bradley has 13.0 innings with five earned runs on 11 hits and five walks in that pair. As for Warren, he’s coming off a loss in Baltimore with four earned runs on six hits and two walks in 3.1 frames. Warren had 6.2 innings with three earned runs over his previous two appearances, however. 

Tampa Bay got a nice pitching performance on Saturday, with the bullpen accounting for 2.0 clean innings behind Littell. Another good outing on the mound Sunday would put New York on the ropes. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays +154