Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction MLB Picks 7/4/24

In this article we will formulate a Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 4th at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

• The Rays recent form and recent player performance 
• The Royals recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Tampa Bay
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Kansas City
• Recent betting trends in games played between Tampa Bay and Kansas City
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Tampa Bay and Kansas City

Rays Continue Their Positive Momentum

The Tampa Bay Rays are 43-43 this season and they have won two of their last three games. Tampa Bay won game one in this series by a score of 5-1, but they lost game two on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Rays won two out of three against the Nationals, won two out of three against the Mariners, and won two out of three against the Pirates. Tampa Bay is 9-4 in their last 13 games and they are fourth in the AL East. 

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a .244 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 344 runs with a .235 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Isaac Paredes is batting .276 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Rays this season. Tampa Bay has scored at least four runs in four of their last eight games. 

Royals are Battling with the Twins 

The Kansas City Royals are 48-40 this year and they have won two of their last three games. Kansas City dropped game one in this series, but they were able to win game two by a score of 4-2 on Wednesday. Prior to this series, the Royals won three out of four against the Guardians, won two out of three against the Marlins, and lost all three against the Rangers. Kansas City is 5-2 in their last seven games and they are third in the AL Central, one game behind Minnesota. 

The Kansas City pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .240 opponent batting average. The Royals offense has scored 397 runs with a .244 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Bobby Witt is batting .314 with 13 home runs and 56 RBI’s for the Royals this season. Kansas City has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zach Eflin, who is 4-5 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 87.1 innings pitched this year. Eflin has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Kansas City is Alec Marsh, who is 6-5 with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 81.2 innings pitched this season. Marsh has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last five starts. 

Why the Royals will beat the Rays

• The Rays have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The underdogs have won each of the last three games between the Rays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Royals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs against the Rays following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Royals’ last 11 home games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Royals’ last three home games against the Rays.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded a Double in four of the Royals’ last five games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded at least one RBI in 10 of the Royals’ last 11 home games.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Royals’ last four home games against AL East opponents.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Royals’ last six home games against AL East opponents.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Royals’ last 10 games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• MJ Melendez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals’ last eight games against the Rays at Kauffman Stadium.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games at Kauffman Stadium against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded a Double in three of the Rays’ last four road games against AL Central opponents.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances with the Rays as road favorites.
• Zach Eflin has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Taylor Walls has scored a run in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zach Eflin has recorded four or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Rays as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Amed Rosario has recorded a Single in five of his last six appearances with the Rays as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Amed Rosario has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight Thursday appearances.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup playing very well over the last week and they will look for the series win here. The Royals are 31-17 at home this year, while the Rays are 20-18 on the road. Tampa Bay is one of the hotter teams in the MLB right now, but Eflin has had some ups and downs recently. Kansas City is going with Marsh, who has been very unreliable over the last few weeks. I don’t like either starting pitcher in this game, but I am going to give the slight edge to Kansas City at home. My Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals prediction is for the Royals to win. 

David Racey's Pick: Royals ML