Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 6/11/25 MLB Picks

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox meet Wednesday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will start Zack Littell for the start here and Littell is 6-5 with a 3.68 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season. In his career, Littell is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 22 strikeouts against Boston. The Boston Red Sox will send out Walker Buehler for the start here and is 4-4 with a 5.18 ERA and 44 strikeouts this season. This will be Buehler’s second career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Red Sox last time out to sit at 36-31 on the year. After this series, the Rays will head on the road for an interleague series against the New York Mets.

Rays Win 6 Of Their Last 8 Despite Loss

Jonathan Aranda has 64 hits with a team-high 12 doubles, 7 home runs and 36 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 57 hits with 13 homers and 36 RBIs as well while Junior Caminero has 62 hits with 15 doubles, a team-high 15 home runs and 41 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 62 hits with 13 doubles, 9 homers and 36 RBIs and Kameron Misner has 38 hits with 9 doubles, 5 homers and 18 RBIs as well while Christopher Morel has 54 strikeouts while Lowe has 66 strikeouts and Misner has 57 K’s as well this season. Jose Caballero has 23 stolen bases while Taylor Walls has 7 stolen bases and Chandler Simpson has 19 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 10 games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 10 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a win.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in each of the Rays’ last three Wednesday games.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Rays’ last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has scored at least one run in five of the Rays’ last six games against AL East opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 12 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Ha-Seong Kim has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL East opponents.
• Jose Caballero ranks 1st in the league in Steals (25) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox will be out to build on their victory over the Rays from Tuesday to improve to 33-36 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Yankees in a rivalry rematch.

Red Sox Split Last 10 Games

Alex Bregman has 59 hits including a team-high 17 doubles along with 11 home runs and 35 RBIs while Rafael Devers has added 71 hits with 18 doubles, 14 home runs and 57 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 57 hits with 8 home runs, 33 RBIs and 10 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 79 hits with 18 doubles, 7 triples, 4 home runs, 37 RBIs and a team-high 13 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell’s added 49 hits with 9 doubles, 6 homers and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 13 home runs with 32 RBIs and 4 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 6 homers, 2 triples, 25 RBIs and 9 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last six Wednesday games against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Wednesday night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five games after playing the previous day.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Red Sox’s last four games against AL East opponents.
• Walker Buehler has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his 10 previous home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in each of his last six home appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox’s last 11 Wednesday games at Fenway Park.
• Rafael Devers ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.407) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Rays in this one. Zack Littell’s had a problem with giving up home runs this season but I’m still not trusting the Red Sox offensively to be able to break through here. Littell has been pitching well, and the Rays have been backing him up and I think the Rays get it done here. Give me Tampa Bay.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -105