Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, May 9th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 17-22 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL East. They have a 7-11 home record and are coming off a 2-0 win at home against the Rays. They will face the Phillies and the Braves next.

The Red Sox have a .234 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .353 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Wilyer Abreu is the team’s best hitter with a .303 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 23, also adding a team‑high 8 home runs.

Payton Tolle (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-1 record, 2.04 ERA and 0.74 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 25-13 record this season and are sitting in the second place of the AL East. They have a 11-9 away record and are coming off a 0-2 loss on the road against the Red Sox. They will face the Blue Jays and the Marlins next.

The Rays have a .254 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .373 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.51 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .316 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 29, and Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Nick Martinez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 3-1 record, 1.71 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: May 9, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 2.04
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last 10 day games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The home team has won eight of the Rays’ last nine games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road day games.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against AL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 3-1      ERA: 1.71
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a loss.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Rays and Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last five day games.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 12 games against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in four of his last 16 appearances with the Rays as road underdogs.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Nick Martinez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.71) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.353).
• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for home runs this season (29).
• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (46).
• The Rays rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (40).

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction

The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Rays and are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Boston.

In this Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -150 home favorites. Boston won a low-scoring affair yesterday and now we have a pitching duel as Payton Tolle goes up against Nick Martinez and both pitchers have a combined 3.75 ERA. Yesterday’s game had just two total runs and both teams are weaker against the opposing starter throw hand with just 7.6 runs/9 combined. The Rays’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball lately, while the Red Sox are 8th in bullpen ERA this season, so I expect a low-scoring affair. Take the under 7.5 runs.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 7.5