St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 7/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, July 4th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 49‑39 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 26‑18 home record and are coming off a 1‑17 home defeat against the Cardinals. They will face the Orioles and the Reds next.

The Cubs have a .245 batting average this season, .339 OBP and .413 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.38 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Pete Crow‑Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average, also adding a team‑high 19 home runs. Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 57.

Shota Imanaga (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 5‑6 record, 4.30 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

St. Louis Cardinals Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals have a 46‑39 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 23‑18 road record and are coming off a 17‑1 road win against the Cubs. They will face the Brewers and the Braves next.

The Cardinals have a .248 batting average this season, .325 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. St. Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Jordan Walker is the team’s best hitter with a .290 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 63 and adding a team‑high 19 home runs.

Kyle Leahy (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 6‑4 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

St. Louis Cardinals @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: July 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shota Imanaga      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 4.30
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 2-2

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last six home games against the Cardinals following a home loss.
• The Cardinals have lost five of their last six road games against the Cubs following a road win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last five games against the Cardinals following a loss.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 12 games after playing the previous day.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games at Wrigley Field.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Leahy      Record this season: 6-4      ERA: 4.09
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-0

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cubs have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 home games following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in 10 of the Cardinals’ last 11 games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Cubs’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Cardinals’ last 10 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of Shota Imanaga’s last nine home appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Cardinals’ last six road games against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against the Cardinals.
• Shota Imanaga has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his 10 previous home appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 15 home games.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Leahy has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances.
• Lars Nootbaar has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Saturday night appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Nathan Church has hit a home run in three of the Cardinals’ last four games.
• Ivan Herrera ranks 6th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (391).
• The Cubs rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (135).
• The Cardinals rank T3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (653).
• The Cardinals rank 28th in the league for strikeouts this season (635).

Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction

The Cardinals are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Cubs but are 1-3 in their last 4 visits in Chicago.

In this Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -165 home favorites. I can only pick the Cubs to bounce back after yesterday’s embarrassing 1-17 loss, as they were red-hot before that with a 8-1 record in their last 9 games. I definitely trust more Imanaga at home than I trust Leahy on the road, where he has a 5.35 ERA. On top of that, the Cubs have a better bullpen and the Cardinals are weaker against lefties. Take the Cubs to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Chicago Cubs ML