Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction 5/14/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Seattle Mariners and the Houston Astros meet Thursday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Seattle Mariners will send out Luis Castillo for the start here and Castillo is 0-4 with a 6.57 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Astros, Castillo is 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA and 25 strikeouts. The Houston Astros will trot out Mike Burrows here and Burrows is 2-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 42 strikeouts this season. In his career, Burrows is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 9 strikeouts against the Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Recap

The Seattle Mariners come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-3 loss at the hands of the Astros on Wednesday to fall to 21-23 this season. After this series, the Mariners will head home for a set against the San Diego Padres.

Mariners Looking To Win Series

Luke Raley has 9 home runs and 24 RBIs this season. Cole Young’s added 38 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 22 RBIs and Cal Raleigh has 26 hits with 4 doubles, 7 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Randy Arozarena has 49 hits with 11 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs as well on the year. Josh Naylor also has 40 hits with 5 home runs and 20 RBIs as well on the year. Julio Rodriguez has also added 47 hits with 9 doubles, 7 home runs and 20 RBIs.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros will be out to build on their win over the Mariners from Wednesday to improve to 17-27 on the year. After this series, the Astros will take on the Texas Rangers in a series at home.

Astros Looking To Salvage Split

Yordan Alvarez has 50 hits with 10 doubles, 13 home runs and 29 RBIs while Christian Walker has 44 hits with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 29 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 39 hits with 10 doubles, 3 home runs and 11 RBIs and Carlos Correa has 34 hits with 8 doubles, 3 home runs and 16 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 30 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 17 RBIs. Yainer Diaz also has 24 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs.

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: May 14, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mike Burrows      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 5.04
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Mariners: 0-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight Thursday day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against AL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Thursday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four day games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Thursday day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo      Record this season: 0-4      ERA: 6.57
• Road Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last 11 games following an extra innings win.
• The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 games against the Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games following an extra innings win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games against American League opponents following an extra innings loss.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games at Daikin Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Astros’ last 10 games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mariners’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mariners’ last nine day games against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Astros’ last six games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last five home games against AL opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.418) this season.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Luis Castillo has recorded five or more strikeouts in 24 of his last 26 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 road games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in three of the Mariners’ last six games against AL West opponents.
• Randy Arozarena ranks T8th in the league in Steals (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.54).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (223).
• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (108).
• The Mariners rank 27th in the league for doubles this season (57).

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction

I’m on the Astros in this one. I think Seattle let one slip away on Wednesday and that’s just given the Astros momentum going into this game against a starter in Castillo who has been batting practice for opposing teams for much of the season so far. Houston’s been inconsistent, but Burrows is coming off of a solid showing and I think that the Astros take care of business for the split here. Give me Houston.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Houston +105