Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction 5/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros meet Monday in MLB action at Daikin Park. Here’s a Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction. This article will include a Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Pick.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 19-22 on the year and play the White Sox and Padres next. The Seattle Mariners are batting. 229 on the season, have a .319 OBP, and have a .378 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners’ pitching staff has a 3.78 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Seattle Mariners with 44 hits and 18 RBI while Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena have combined for 79 hits and 33 RBI.

George Kirby gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 4-2 with a 2.94 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season. Kirby is 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA and 54 strikeouts in his career against the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 16-25 on the year and play the Rangers and Twins next. The Houston Astros are batting. 258 on the season, have a .333 OBP, and have a .429 slugging percentage. The Houston Astros pitching staff has a 5.57 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez leads the Houston Astros with 48 hits and 29 RBI while Jose Altuve and Christian Walker have combined for 77 hits and 36 RBI.

Peter Lambert gets the ball for the Houston Astros, and he is 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. This will be Lambert’s second career game against the Seattle Mariners.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight games against the Mariners at Daikin Park following a road loss.
• The Mariners have lost four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against the Mariners at Daikin Park following a road loss.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 games against the Astros.
• The Astros have lost each of their last six games against the Mariners following a loss.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last five night games against the Astros at Daikin Park following a road loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Mariners at Daikin Park following a loss.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Astros’ last 10 games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mariners’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 games as favorites against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last six home games against American League opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 Monday night appearances against AL West teams that held a losing record.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.642) this season.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last three games as favorites against AL West opponents.
• Julio Rodriguez has recorded two or more hits in each of the Mariners’ last five night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• George Kirby has recorded a win in each of his last five road appearances against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• George Kirby has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Mariners as favorites against the Astros.
• George Kirby ranks T10th in the league for Wins (4) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (210).
• The Astros rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (359).
• The Mariners rank 27th in the league for batting average this season (.229).
• The Mariners rank T27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (379).

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

I’m not excited to get behind either of these teams that have underachieved up to this point. The Mariners were a popular World Series pick before the season and they’re three games below a .500 record. The Astros have a losing record at home and their pitching staff has been horrendous. I’m grabbing the under in this spot. Kirby has a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 52 innings, while Lambert has a 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 22.1 innings. Lambert has yet to allow a home run this season. Two pitchers in good form, I expect a somewhat low-scoring game. Give me the under.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Under