San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 5/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners meet Saturday in MLB action at T-Mobile Park. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction. This article will include a San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Pick.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 26-18 on the year and play the Dodgers and Athletics next. The San Diego Padres are batting. 223 on the season, have a .294 OBP, and have a .363 slugging percentage. The San Diego Padres pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Xander Bogaerts leads the San Diego Padres with 41 hits and 23 RBI, while Miguel Andujar and Fernando Tatis Jr. have combined for 73 hits and 28 RBI.

Walker Buehler gets the ball for the San Diego Padres, and he is 2-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. Buehler is 2-1 with a 6.39 ERA and 26 strikeouts in his career against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 22-24 on the year and play the White Sox and Royals next. The Seattle Mariners are batting. 232 on the season, have a .321 OBP, and have a .383 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners’ pitching staff has a 3.58 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Randy Arozarena leads the Seattle Mariners with 51 hits and 16 RBI while Josh Naylor and Julio Rodriguez have combined for 89 hits and 40 RBI.

Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 2-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 52 strikeouts this season. Gilbert is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his career against the San Diego Padres.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last five games against the Padres following a home loss.
• The Padres have lost each of their last four games against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in six of their last eight games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at T-Mobile Park

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Mariners have lost each of their last seven games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won each of their last six day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Padres and Mariners.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games at T-Mobile Park against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Padres’ last eight games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mariners’ last four day games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last eight road games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Logan Gilbert’s last six home appearances as a starter.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Luke Raley has hit a home run in two of the Mariners’ last three games as favorites.
• Logan Gilbert has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against the Padres.
• Logan Gilbert has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 17 of his last 22 appearances with the Mariners as home favorites.
• Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 12 Saturday games as favorites.
• Randy Arozarena ranks T10th in the league in Hits (51) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has hit a home run in two of the Padres’ last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Gavin Sheets has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Padres as road underdogs against AL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank T6th in the league for walks this season (179).
• The Mariners rank 6th in the league for ERA this season (3.58).
• The Padres rank T2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (36).
• The Padres rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.294).

San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

You can make a case for the Padres and the plus money based on their team success, but I can’t get there with Buehler on the bump. Through 36.1 innings, Buehler has a 5.20 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 12 walks. Gilbert has had issues keeping the ball in the park, but through 50 innings, he has a 3.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He’s averaging more than a strikeout per inning. The Mariners have the edge on the mound and they’re usually at their best at home. Give me the M’s and the reasonable price.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Seattle Mariners