Reds vs Pirates Prediction 5/2/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 2nd at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-12 this year after they lost game one by a score of 9-1 on Friday night. Cincinnati allowed the first eight runs in the game and they never had a chance in the blowout loss. The Reds recorded three hits in the game and they were led by De La Cruz, who went 0-4 with one RBI. Singer allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 3.1 innings for the loss, while Maxwell allowed four earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Cincinnati won two out of three against the Rockies and two out of three against the Tigers. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.19 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while they have scored 134 runs with a .217 batting average and a .306 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Rhett Lowder, who is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 34.0 innings pitched this year. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 17-16 this season after they won game one by a score of 9-1 last night. Pittsburgh jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the first inning and they never looked back in the easy win. The Pirates recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Davis, who went 2-3 with two home runs and three RBIs. Keller allowed three hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Sisk threw a scoreless ninth. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh lost all four against the Cardinals, but did win two out of three against the Brewers before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.73 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .221 opponent batting average, while they have scored 162 runs with a .247 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with nine home runs and 26 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added eight home runs and 20 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 1-2 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 28.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last four night games against the Reds at PNC Park following a home loss.
• The Reds have lost five of their last six night games against the Pirates at PNC Park following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six Friday games.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games at PNC Park following a win.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Friday night games as favorites.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last 12 home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have won seven of the Pirates’ last eight games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last 11 home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games at PNC Park.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last three road night games.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Reds’ last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates’ last six home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Reds’ last 11 games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six home appearances against the Reds.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last seven games as home favorites against the Reds.
• Jared Triolo has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as home favorites.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (9) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit at least one home run in two of his last three appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Brady Singer has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL Central opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Sal Stewart ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank T2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (26).
• The Pirates rank 6th in the league for hits this season (271).
• The Reds are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Reds rank T4th in the league for home runs this season (42).

Reds vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh was able to snap their losing streak with a blowout win on Friday night, but they allowed 26 runs in the three games prior to that. The Pirates are 9-9 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-4 on the road. Cincinnati has allowed at least eight runs in three of their last five games, but they are starting Lowder, who has allowed three earned runs in his last 11.0 innings. Pittsburgh is going with Mlodzinski, who has allowed nine earned runs over his last 8.0 innings. Take the Reds to bounce back with a win here.

David Racey's Pick: Reds ML