In this article we will formulate a Reds vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 4th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 45-42 this year after they lost two out of three against Boston by scores of 6-13, 3-5, and 8-4. In their game three win, Cincinnati trailed 3-0 in the sixth inning, but they scored five runs in the seventh and added three more in the eighth for the win. The Reds recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Encarnacion-Strand, who went 2-5 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. Cincinnati started Martinez, who allowed nine hits and four earned runs over 6.2 innings for the win, while Rogers picked up a hold. 

Prior to that series, the Reds won two out of three against the Padres and two out of three against the Yankees. Cincinnati has lost three of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.93 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 404 runs with a .247 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 18 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 10 home runs and 35 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 80.1 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies are 51-36 this season after they won two out of three against San Diego by scores of 4-0, 4-6, and 5-1. In their game three win, Philadelphia fell behind 1-0 in the fourth inning, but they scored the last five runs in the game for the victory. The Phillies recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Kepler, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Philadelphia started Sanchez, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Kerkering and Strahm finished the win. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Braves, but did lose all three against the Astros before that. Philadelphia has won three of their last four games and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 399 runs with a .256 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 26 home runs and 58 RBIs, while Trea Turner has added 11 home runs and 39 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Jesus Luzardo, who is 7-4 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 95.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Reds
The favorites have won each of the Phillies’ last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Reds have lost each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park against teams that held a winning record.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home favorites.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against the Phillies following a win.
The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against the Reds.

Why the Reds will beat the Phillies
The Phillies have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Reds following a win.
The underdogs have won three of the Reds’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
The Reds have covered the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts
Six of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Twelve of the Reds’ last 15 road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Reds’ last five road games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
Nick Castellanos has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last five games as home favorites.
Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Reds.
Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Double in each of the Phillies’ last three games as favorites against the Reds.
Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in each of his two previous appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances.

Reds vs Phillies Prediction 
Philadelphia comes into this matchup after picking up another series win, as they stay hot over the last couple of weeks. The Phillies are 28-15 at home this year, while the Reds are 21-23 on the road. Cincinnati just lost two out of three against Boston, but they are starting Abbott, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight outings. The Phillies are going with Luzardo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Take the under here. 

David Racey's Pick: Under 8