Jun 28, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Curtis Mead (25) tags out Baltimore Orioles left fielder Colton Cowser (17) at second base during the ninth inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Rays vs Orioles Prediction 06/29/2025 Picks

Pick details

Tampa Bay (47-36) vs Baltimore (35-47)

June 29, 2025 at 01:35 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: Baltimore +1.5 — Over/Under: +9.5

(Get latest betting odds)

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, June 29th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays are 47-36 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 8-22 and 11-3. In their game two win, Tampa Bay scored the first nine runs in the game and they were able to cruise to the win. The Rays recorded 14 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Diaz, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Tampa Bay started Littell, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Rock allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Rays swept the Royals in three games and won two out of three against the Tigers. Tampa Bay has won six of their last eight games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 402 runs with a .260 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 20 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 17 home runs and 48 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Taj Bradley, who is 5-5 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 86.2 innings pitched this year. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Baltimore Orioles are 35-47 this season after they lost game two by a score of 11-3 on Saturday. Baltimore scored once in the fifth and twice in the ninth, but that wasn’t nearly enough in the blowout loss. The Orioles recorded seven hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Laureano, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. Baltimore started Eflin, who allowed five hits and four earned runs over 1.0 inning for the loss, while Blewett also allowed four earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Orioles lost two out of three against the Rangers and two out of three against the Yankees. Baltimore has lost five of their last seven games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 5.00 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a .271 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 340 runs with a .239 batting average and a .306 on base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with 12 home runs and 38 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 11 home runs and 30 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 6-7 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 90.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Rays
The Orioles have won each of their last four home games against AL East opponents following a loss.
The Rays have lost four of their last five road games against AL East opponents following a road win.
The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Orioles have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents.

Why the Rays will beat the Orioles
The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Orioles have lost each of their last four day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Rays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against AL East opponents.
The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts
Each of the Rays’ last four day games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Six of the Orioles’ last eight home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last six day games against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
Dean Kremer has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Orioles as home favorites against AL opponents.
Dean Kremer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his six previous Sunday appearances with the Orioles as favorites.
Jordan Westburg has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Orioles as favorites.
Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Orioles as home favorites.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Rays as road underdogs against the Orioles.
Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances after playing the previous day.

Rays vs Orioles Prediction 
Tampa Bay was able to bounce back from their blowout loss on Friday night with a blowout win of their own on Saturday, as we have seen 44 runs in the first two games of this series. The Rays are 20-13 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 18-22 at home. Baltimore has dropped three of their last four games and they have allowed at least six runs in all four of those contests. The O’s are going with Kremer, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last two starts. TB is going with Bradley, who has allowed zero earned runs in three of his last five outings, but did get roughed up in the other two starts during that span. We have seen plenty of offense so far in this series and with both pitchers being very average, I will back the over once again. 

David Racey's Pick: Over 9.5

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