Rays vs Cubs Prediction 9/12/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 12th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 72-74 this season after they lost two out of three against the White Sox by scores of 5-4, 5-6, and 1-5. In their game three loss, Tampa Bay fell behind in the first inning and never had a chance, but did score in the eighth to avoid the shutout. The Rays recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Caminero, who went 0-4 with one RBI in the loss. Tampa Bay started Seymour, who allowed five hits and three earned runs over 5.1 innings for the loss, while Orze allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Rays lost three out of four against the Guardians, but did sweep the Mariners in three games before that. Tampa Bay has lost five of their last six games and they are fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 655 runs with a .252 batting average and a .313 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 42 home runs and 106 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 28 home runs and 74 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 9-11 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 155.0 innings pitched this season. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 83-63 this year after they won two out of three against Atlanta by scores of 1-4, 6-1, and 3-2. In their game three win, Chicago trailed 1-0 in the third, but scored the next three runs and hung on for the slim victory. The Cubs recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Suzuki, Kelly, and Turner, who all had one RBI in the win. Chicago started Taillon, who allowed six hits and two earned runs over 4.1 innings, while Rogers picked up the win and Kittredge got the save. 

Prior to that series, the Cubs lost two out of three against the Nationals, but did win two out of three against the Braves before that. Chicago has split their last six games and they are currently second in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.86 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 713 runs with a .248 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Seiya Suzuki has led Chicago with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs, while Pete Crow-Armstrong has added 28 home runs and 87 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Matthew Boyd, who is 12-8 with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 166.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cubs will beat the Rays 

The Rays have lost each of their last seven day games following a road loss.
The Cubs have won seven of their last eight games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games after playing the previous day.
The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last four home games against the Rays following a win.
The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
The Cubs have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Rays will beat the Cubs 

The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Cubs have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games as home favorites following a win.
The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Cubs’ last nine games at Wrigley Field.

Total Runs Facts

Eight of the Rays’ last nine games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
Seven of the Cubs’ last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Rays’ last 16 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Cubs’ last five day games against AL East opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

Ian Happ has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last five day games.
Matthew Boyd has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last six games.
Matthew Boyd has recorded a win in 10 of his last 13 home appearances.
Dansby Swanson has recorded a Double in three of the Cubs’ last four games against AL opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three road games against NL opponents.
Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last six games as road underdogs.
Brandon Lowe has recorded a Double in three of the Rays’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.

Rays vs Cubs Prediction 

The Cubs were able to get a nice series win over the Braves earlier this week, but they still trail the Brewers by 5.5 games in the Central. Chicago is 44-28 at home this year, while Atlanta is 34-38 on the road. The Rays are really struggling right now and just lost a series to the lowly White Sox. TB is starting Baz, who has allowed 2, 0, 3, 6, and 4 earned runs in his last five outings. Chicago is starting Boyd, who has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. Take the over in this contest.