Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 3/30/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds meet Monday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Braxton Ashcraft for the start here and Ashcraft was 4-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 71 strikeouts last season. In his career, Ashcraft is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 10 strikeouts against the Reds. Chase Burns will start here for Cincinnati and was 0-3 with a 4.57 ERA and 67 strikeouts last season. This will be Burns’ second career start against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 win over the Mets last time out to improve to 1-2 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will head home for a series against Baltimore.

Pirates Salvage Win From Opening Series

Ryan O’Hearn leads the Pirates with 6 hits along with a home run and 3 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 5 hits with 3 home runs and 4 RBIs as well this season. Nick Gonzales has 4 hits with a double along with 3 RBIs while Bryan Reynolds has 3 hits with an RBI. Jared Triolo, Jake Mangum and Henry Davis all have a pair of hits with a double, with Davis logging a pair of RBIs as well this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to build on their 3-2 win over Boston from Sunday’s rubber match to sit at 2-1 this season. After this series, the Reds will head on the road for a game against the Texas Rangers.

Reds Win Opening Series

Sal Stewart has a team-high 7 hits with 3 doubles, a home run and 2 RBIs while Eugenio Suarez has a pair of hits with a home run and 4 RBIs. Matt McLain has 4 hits with a double and an RBI while TJ Friedl and Dane Myers each have 2 hits with Friedl logging a pair of doubles. 

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: March 30, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Burns      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Home Record: –
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won eight of their last nine home games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last four games following an extra innings win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games after going to extra innings.
• The Reds have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 Monday games as favorites against the Pirates.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: –      ERA: –
• Road Record: –
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The underdogs have won three of the last four games between the Pirates and Reds.
• The Reds have lost 10 of their last 11 night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Pirates’ last 10 games as underdogs against the Reds have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Pirates and Reds at Great American Ball Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last eight games as home favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five games at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one Double in each of his last five Monday appearances against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last eight night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Tyler Stephenson has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Reds as favorites.
• Sal Stewart ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.700) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (3) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 25th in the league for runs scored this season (9).
• The Reds rank T7th in the league for triples this season (0).
• The Pirates rank T28th in the league for steals this season (0).
• The Pirates rank 6th in the league for hits this season (29).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’m on Pittsburgh here. I get the case to be made for Cincinnati at home as the Reds looked solid against the Red Sox in that weekend series, but the thing here is that the Pirates for me still have the better starter here as Burns sometimes has control issues with how hard he throws, and Pittsburgh was really competitive against the Mets this past weekend. I think Pittsburgh carries that over here and starts the series with a win so give me Pittsburgh.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Pittsburgh +115