Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, May 7th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 17-18 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL West. They have a 10-7 home record and are coming off a 0-1 loss at home against the Pirates. They will face the Mets and the Rangers next.

The Diamondbacks have a .244 batting average this season, .303 OBP and .405 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Ildemaro Vargas is the team’s best hitter with a .364 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 22. Ketel Marte adds a team‑high 6 home runs.

Zac Gallen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 1-2 record, 4.45 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 20-17 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL Central. They have a 9-8 away record and are coming off a 1-0 win on the road against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Giants and the Rockies next.

The Pirates have a .247 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .309 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team in RBI with 28, also adding a team‑high 9 home runs.

Mitch Keller (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 3-1 record, 2.85 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: May 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 4.45
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 2-3

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five games as road favorites following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Thursday day games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in six of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller      Record this season: 3-1      ERA: 2.85
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 1-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last nine day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have won each of their last four games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last nine games as underdogs.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in 11 of their last 12 games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in each of their last four games as road favorites against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Pirates’ last 10 day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games at Chase Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five road games against NL West opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Gabriel Moreno has hit a home run in three of his last nine appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Zac Gallen has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances at Chase Field.
• Zac Gallen has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances at Chase Field against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last eight home games against the Pirates.
• Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.364) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances in day games.
• Jared Triolo has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T4th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (95).
• The Pirates rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (28).
• The Pirates rank T2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (342).

Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Pirates are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Diamondbacks and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Arizona.

In this Pirates vs Diamondbacks Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. Both teams have split wins in this series and the Pirates are now 4-1 in their last 5 games, while the Dbacks are 1-5 in their last 6. Keller takes the mound for the Pirates and has been very good this season and better on the road, while Gallen has been shaky again this season but solid at home with a 1.23 ERA. The Pirates have scored just two runs in their last three games and the Dbacks’ offense has also been shaky, so I will go under the high number of 9 in this game.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 9