Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5/6/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Wednesday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send out Paul Skenes for the start here and Skenes is 4-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 39 strikeouts this season. In his career, Skenes is 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 20 strikeouts against Arizona. Michael Soroka will start for the Diamondbacks here and is 4-1 with a 4.70 ERA and 36 strikeouts this season. This will be Soroka’s second career start against Arizona.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from a 9-0 loss at the hands of Arizona on Tuesday to sit at 19-17 this season. After this series, Pittsburgh will head on the road for a series against the San Francisco Giants.

Pirates Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Oneil Cruz has 37 hits including 6 doubles, 9 home runs and 28 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 37 hits with 5 doubles, 5 home runs and 24 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 38 hits with 5 doubles and 17 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 28 hits with 8 doubles, 8 home runs and 21 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 32 hits with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 4 home runs and 22 RBIs as well this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to add on to their win over Pittsburgh from Tuesday’s matchup to improve to 17-17 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will play host to the New York Mets in a series at home.

Diamondbacks Snap Four-Game Losing Streak

Corbin Carroll has 30 hits including 7 doubles, 4 triples, 4 home runs and 19 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 9 doubles with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 29 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 13 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 26 hits, with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 30 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs and Jose Fernandez has 28 hits with 3 home runs and 12 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 40 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs and 22 RBIs.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: May 6, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael Soroka      Record this season: 4-1      ERA: 4.70
• Home Record: 3-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last 11 Wednesday night games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 12 Wednesday night games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 2.91
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last five road games following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last five road games following a loss.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in each of their last three games as road favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last eight games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Pirates’ last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last six games at Chase Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four road games against NL West opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Diamondbacks’ last three games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Michael Soroka has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances at Chase Field.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 25 appearances in night games.
• Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.374) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit at least one home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as road favorites.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded two hits in each of his last five road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Oneil Cruz ranks T5th in the league in Steals (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (94).
• The Pirates rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (28).
• The Pirates rank T2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (334).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the Pirates here. I just think that Paul Skenes is the better option and the more likely of the two starters to bounce back here, Arizona can be very hit or miss and Pittsburgh’s done a great job as of late of putting bat to ball against righties and I think they do enough to get to Soroka and this Arizona bullpen so give me the Pirates.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Pittsburgh -135