Pirates vs Mets Prediction 3/29/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, March 29th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 0-2 this season after they lost game two in this series by a score of 4-2 in extra innings. Pittsburgh led 1-0 in the 10th and 2-1 in the 11th, but they allowed a three run home run in the bottom of the 11th for the loss. The Pirates recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Reynolds and Gonzales, who both had one RBI. Keller allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings in the no decision, while Barco allowed three hits and two earned runs for the loss. 

Last season, Pittsburgh had a 3.76 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while they scored 583 runs (last in the MLB) with a .231 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Bryan Reynolds led the team with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Oneil Cruz added 20 home runs and 61 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who went 5-8 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 99.0 innings pitched last season. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 2-0 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 11-7 and 4-2. In game two, New York really struggled at the plate for most of the game, but they scored once in the 10th and three times in the 11th for the walk-off win. The Mets recorded six hits and they committed one error, while they were led by Robert Jr, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the game. Peterson allowed six hits and zero earned runs over 5.1 innings in the no decision, while Lovelady picked up the win in relief. 

Last season, New York had a 4.03 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while they scored 766 runs with a .249 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Pete Alonso (now in Baltimore) led the team with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, while Juan Soto added 43 home runs and 105 RBIs last year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Nolan McLean, who went 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 48.0 innings pitched last year. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last six day games against National League opponents.
• The home team has won eight of the last nine games between the Pirates and Mets.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites following an extra innings win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last five Sunday day games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have won four of their last six games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against National League opponents following an extra innings loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL Central opponents following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Mets’ last 11 day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Mets’ last 12 games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in three of the Pirates’ last four day games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Luis Robert has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his nine previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Mets.

Pirates vs Mets Prediction 

New York has trailed in games one and two in this series, but they have found a way to start the season undefeated. The Mets are starting McLean, who had very strong numbers in limited work last year. The Pirates are going with Mlodzinski, who actually did a pretty nice job last season. We have seen two very entertaining games to start this series, but I am going with the Mets and McLean here. Take New York -1.5 in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Mets -1.5