Pirates vs Guardians Prediction 7/18/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 18th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 50-47 this year after they swept the Brewers in three games by scores of 7-6, 3-2, and 14-5. In game three, Pittsburgh had their lead cut to 4-2 in the fourth inning, but they scored 10 runs in the bottom of the fourth to run away with the easy win. The Pirates recorded 15 hits in the game and they were led by Davis, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Skenes allowed three hits and two earned runs over 5.1 innings for the win, while Kelly allowed three earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh lost two out of three against the Braves, but did win two out of three against the Nationals before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 516 runs with a .263 batting average and a .342 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 21 home runs and 64 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 16 home runs and 63 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh in game one is Jared Jones, who is 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 35.0 innings pitched this year. The projected starter in game two is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 9-3 with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 113.1 innings pitched.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 51-46 this season after they swept the Marlins in three games by scores of 3-2, 4-1, and 5-2. In game three, Cleveland had their lead cut to 2-1 in the third inning, but they scored the next three runs to put the game away. The Guardians recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Rocchio, who went 2-5 with one home run and two RBIs. Cantillo allowed six hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the win, while Gaddis picked up a hold. Prior to that series, Cleveland lost two out of three against the Twins and split four games with the White Sox. 

This season, Cleveland has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they have scored 385 runs with a .229 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Chase DeLauter has led the Guardians with 11 home runs and 46 RBIs, while Angel Martinez has added 11 home runs and 33 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland in game one is Gavin Williams, who is 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 113.1 innings pitched this season. The projected starter for game two is Logan Allen, who is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over 4.0 innings pitched. 

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last five day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last four road games against the Guardians following a win.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Pirates following a road win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against AL Central opponents.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Guardians have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have won each of their last three games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games following a win.
• The road team has covered the run line in nine of the Guardians’ last 10 games.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last six day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five road games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Pirates’ last eight day games against American League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Gavin Williams’ last four appearances as a starter.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Manzardo has hit at least one home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games against the Pirates.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last nine games as home favorites.
• Gavin Williams has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Jones has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his four previous road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as underdogs.
• Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs.

Pirates vs Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have allowed two runs or fewer in all four of those wins. The Guardians are 24-22 at home this year, while the Pirates are 23-23 on the road. Pittsburgh has won three in a row and they have scored 29 runs in their last four games. In game one, Pittsburgh has the advantage with Jones on the mound, despite his limited innings this year, while they also have the advantage in game two with Ashcraft starting. Take the Pirates to win both games here.

David Racey's Pick: Game 1: Pirates ML Game 2: Pirates ML