Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction 7/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 28th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 53-54 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have a 32-23 home record and are coming off an 8-7 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Mets and the Braves next.

The Miami Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .407 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .331 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 60, while Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 15 home runs.

Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Miami Marlins, and he has a 10-6 record, 4.01 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 57-50 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 29-23 away record and are coming off a 7-8 road loss against the Marlins. They will face the Orioles and the Nationals next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .237 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Bryce Harper leads the team in RBI with 63, while Kyle Schwarber adds a team-high 33 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he has a 3-8 record, 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: July 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 10-6      ERA: 4.01
• Home Record: 4-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-3

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have lost five of their last six games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 5.82
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 12 night games following a road loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight night games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 10 of the Marlins’ last 11 games at LoanDepot Park.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games against the Marlins.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four games as favorites against the Phillies have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last eight games as home favorites.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games as road underdogs.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Griffin Conine has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Marlins as favorites.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Liam Hicks has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (136) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two road games against the Marlins.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with the Phillies as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 12 night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1049).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1049).

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

The Phillies are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Marlins and have won two of their last three visits in Miami.

In this Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, the Marlins are coming as -115 home favorites. I like the Marlins to keep rolling at home in this one as they will be facing a struggling Aaron Nola, who has been terrible this season with a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. On the flip side, Sandy Alcantara has been very good at home with a 3.26 ERA and the Marlins have both a better bullpen and are better than the Phillies against right-handed pitching. Take the Marlins to win.  

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Miami Marlins ML