Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 7/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, July 9th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 42‑49 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 21‑25 home record and are coming off a 11‑5 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Cubs and the Rockies next.

The Cincinnati Reds have a .227 batting average this season, .308 OBP and .386 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .274 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 64, adding a team‑high 19 home runs.

Brady Singer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds, and he has a 3‑8 record, 5.03 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 51‑42 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 26‑21 away record and are coming off a 5‑11 road loss against the Reds. They will face the Tigers and the Mets next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .238 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .403 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 58, adding a team‑high 32 home runs.

Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he has a 7‑4 record, 3.75 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: July 9, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brady Singer      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 5.03
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Reds have won four of their last six games as underdogs against the Phillies.
• The Reds have covered the run line in six of their last seven games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Great American Ball Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 7-4      ERA: 3.75
• Road Record: 5-0
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-3

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Reds have lost nine of their last 10 home games following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 night games following a road loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games following a home win.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last five night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Reds’ last six home games against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Phillies’ last eight games against National League opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Brady Singer has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.
• Sal Stewart has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 games against NL opponents.
• Brady Singer has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in four of the Phillies’ last five night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games.
• Edmundo Sosa has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (695).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.228).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (905).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.305).

Phillies vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Phillies and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.

In this Phillies vs Reds Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -160 road favorites. I like the Phillies in a bounce-back spot on the road with Jesus Luzardo on the mound, who has been in excellent form, having given up one run in each of his last three starts and has been elite on the road with a 4-0 record and 1.55 ERA. On the flip side, Singer has given up 7 runs in his last two starts combined and the Reds are just 26th against left-handed pitching in the month of July and also have a weaker bullpen. Take the Phillies to win.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML