Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 8/31/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB matchup on Monday, August 31st in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 73-65 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 40-29 home record and are coming off a 2-7 road loss against the Giants. They will face the Astros and the Royals next.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .244 batting average this season, .316 OBP, and .398 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.18 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Gabriel Moreno is the Diamondbacks’ best hitter with a .302 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 67, while Nolan Arenado adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Brandon Pfaadt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, with a 7-1 record, 3.51 ERA, and 1.14 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 77-60 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 39-30 road record and are coming off a 5-2 road win against the Angels. They will face the Braves and the Astros next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .243 batting average this season, .314 OBP, and .402 slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the Phillies’ best hitter with a .274 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 82, adding a team-high 40 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, with a 5-10 record, 5.03 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: August 31, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt      Record this season: 7-1      ERA: 3.51
• Home Record: 3-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last six games as underdogs against NL opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against NL opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games against NL opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 road games against NL opponents following a win.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Chase Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 5-10      ERA: 5.03
• Road Record: 4-6
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 2-3

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six night games against the Phillies following a road loss.
• The favorites have covered the run line in seven of the Phillies’ last eight games.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Phillies’ last eight road games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last six games at Chase Field.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the last eight games between the Phillies and Diamondbacks at Chase Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Corbin Carroll has hit a home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last two games as home underdogs against the Phillies.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Diamondbacks as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his four previous appearances against the Phillies.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a win in each of his last six Monday appearances.
• Gabriel Moreno ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.382) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Marsh has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as favorites.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks T1st in the league in Hits (163) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (35).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (945).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1349).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Phillies and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Arizona.

In this Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -120 road favorites. I like the Phillies in this one with Nola on the mound, who seems to have turned things around lately and has given up two runs or less in his last four starts. On the flip side, Brandon Pfaadt has given up 9 runs in his last two starts and will face a red-hot Phillies team that is 8-2 in their last 10 games and is the 4th-best road team in baseball. On top of that, the Phillies have a better bullpen lately, so I expect them to win this one on the road in a very nice price.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML