Padres vs Braves Prediction 7/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Padres vs Braves prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 23rd at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 50-52 this season after they lost two of the first three games in this series by scores of 2-3, 8-3, and 6-7. In game three, San Diego trailed 7-1 in the ninth inning, but did score five runs in the last inning and nearly tied the game. The Padres recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Tatis Jr, who went 1-3 with two RBIs. King allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Peralta picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, San Diego lost two out of three against the Royals, but did win two out of three against the Blue Jays before that. 

This season, San Diego has a 4.24 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while they have scored 421 runs with a .230 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Manny Machado has led the Padres with 22 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added 14 home runs and 41 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Griffin Canning, who is 1-8 with a 6.67 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP over 59.1 innings pitched this season. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 59-42 this year after they won game three by a score of 7-6 last night. Atlanta blew a 1-0 lead in the seventh inning, but they scored six runs in the eighth and escaped with the win. The Braves recorded 14 hits in the game and they were led by Olson, who went 2-3 with one RBI. Perez allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Lee picked up the win and Iglesias got the save. Prior to this series, Atlanta won two out of three against the Rangers, but lost two out of three against the Cardinals before that. 

This season, Atlanta has a 3.67 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while they have scored 502 runs with a .250 batting average and a .317 on base percentage. Matt Olson has led the Braves with 26 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Drake Baldwin has added 18 home runs and 54 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Chris Sale, who is 10-6 with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 105.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Padres have lost eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents.
• The home team has won six of the Padres’ last eight games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Truist Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games as home favorites.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 10 games against the Braves following a road loss.
• The Braves have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites against the Padres following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against the Padres following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Braves’ last eight games as home favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of Chris Sale’s last 11 appearances as a starter.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in four of the Padres’ last five games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Chris Sale has recorded eight or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Chris Sale has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Drake Baldwin has hit a home run in two of the Braves’ last three day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Thursday day appearances with the Braves as favorites.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit at least one home run in three of the Padres’ last four road games.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with his team as an underdog against NL East opponents.
• Griffin Canning has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances.

Padres vs Braves Prediction 

Atlanta comes into this matchup looking for the series win, but they have allowed at least five runs in four of their last five games. The Braves are 31-20 at home this year, while the Padres are 23-28 on the road. San Diego has alternated wins and losses over their last five games and they have scored 6+ runs in three of their last four. The Padres are starting Canning, who has allowed 4, 2, 1, 2, and 4 earned runs in his last five starts, while Sale has allowed four earned runs in his last five outings. Take the Braves -1.5 here.

David Racey's Pick: Braves -1.5