New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction 5/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Yankees and the New York Mets meet Saturday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. New York Mets prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Carlos Rodon for the start here and Rodon is 0-0 with a 6.23 ERA and 4 strikeouts this season. In his career, Rodon is 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA and 21 strikeouts against the Mets. Huascar Brazoban will start here and Brazoban is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 16 strikeouts this season. This will be Brazoban’s first career start against the Yankees.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to build on their 5-2 win over the Mets last time out to sit at 28-17 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head home for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Yankees Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Entering Friday, Giancarlo Stanton has 23 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs while Ben Rice has 40 hits with 9 doubles, 13 home runs and 29 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 42 hits with 7 doubles, 16 home runs and 30 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 42 hits with 10 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 29 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 31 hits with 7 doubles, 4 home runs and 14 RBIs as well on the year.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Yankees on Friday to fall to 18-26 on the year. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a series against the Washington Nationals.

Mets Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Going into Friday, Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 28 hits with 4 doubles, 5 home runs and 13 RBIs. Brett Baty has 27 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs and 15 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 35 hits with 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 38 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 27 hits with 5 doubles and 4 home runs this season.

New York Yankees @ New York Mets Betting Trends: May 16, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Huascar Brazoban      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 2.14
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Yankees: 1-0

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have lost five of their last six games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last nine Saturday games as underdogs against the Yankees.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games following a win.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games against the Yankees at Citi Field.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 13 games at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 6.23
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Mets: 3-1

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last five night games against the Mets.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine road night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last nine road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mets’ last seven home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Carlos Rodon’s last five appearances as a starter.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against former teams.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against former teams.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Trent Grisham has hit a home run in three of the Yankees’ last four games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Carlos Rodon has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Ben Rice ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.686) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.347).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.225).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (67).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (204).

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Prediction

I’m on the Mets here. It’ll be interesting to see how the Mets handle the pitching situation here after the latest blow to their injury front with Clay Holmes being taken out indefinitely, but the Mets’ offense had been doing fairly well before Friday’s loss and I’m not all that enthused with Carlos Rodon’s game after his first start back and he also struggled in his rehab starts to get back on track. I think the Mets get some revenge here so give me the Mets.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: New York Mets +130