New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 6/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Cincinnati Reds meet Wednesday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Nolan McLean for the start here and McLean is 3-4 with a 4.01 ERA and 88 strikeouts this season. Nick Lodolo will start for the Reds and is 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA and 30 strikeouts this season. 

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to shake off a 5-3 loss at the hands of the Reds on Tuesday to sit at 32-41 this season. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Mets Drop Back-To-Back Games

Entering Tuesday, Juan Soto has 58 hits with 6 doubles, 15 home runs and 34 RBIs. Brett Baty has 49 hits with 9 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 26 RBIs. Marcus Semien also has 56 hits with 8 doubles, 9 home runs and 26 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 71 hits with 11 doubles, 8 home runs and 40 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 31 hits with 5 doubles and 5 home runs this season. Carson Benge also has 64 hits with 9 doubles, 7 home runs and 26 RBIs and Mark Vientos had added 43 hits with 9 doubles, 7 home runs and 27 RBIs.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Mets from Tuesday to sit at 35-37 this season. After this series, the Reds will head on the road for a game against the New York Yankees.

Reds Pick Up Back-To-Back Ws

Going into Tuesday, Elly De La Cruz has 65 hits with 13 doubles, 2 triples, 12 home runs and 37 RBIs while Sal Stewart has 66 hits with 13 doubles, 13 home runs and 43 RBIs. Spencer Steer has 59 hits with 12 doubles, 10 home runs and 27 RBIs and Matt McLain has 48 hits with 12 doubles, 8 home runs and 25 RBIs. JJ Bleday’s added 44 hits with 10 doubles, 13 home runs and 34 RBIs as well on the year.

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: June 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Lodolo      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 5.21
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 2-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have won each of their last five day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean      Record this season: 3-4      ERA: 4.01
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last eight Wednesday day home games.
• The Mets have won each of their last four day games following a loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday day home games.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six Wednesday day games against the Reds.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Wednesday day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last 11 Wednesday day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last five day games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mets’ last nine road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 Wednesday games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last eight Wednesday games.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit at least one home run in each of the Reds’ last two day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Nick Lodolo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against the Reds.
• Bo Bichette has recorded two or more hits in each of the Mets’ last five games.
• Juan Soto ranks 10th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.549) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 28th in the league for hits this season (553).
• The Reds rank 28th in the league for batting average this season (.229).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (92).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.369).

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

I’m on the Mets in this one. I get the case to be made for Cincinnati at home after they’ve started to find something, but Lodolo has struggled at GABP this season and I think McLean is still the better option in this matchup overall. I think the Mets avoid the sweep and get the win here. so give me New York.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: NY Mets -125