New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 5/8/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Friday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Nolan McLean for the start here and McLean is 1-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 51 strikeouts this season. This will be McLean’s second career start against the Diamondbacks. Ryne Nelson will start for Arizona and is 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 28 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Diamondbacks, Nelson is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and 15 strikeouts. 

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 6-2 loss at the hands of the Rockies to fall to 14-23 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Detroit Tigers.

Mets Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 24 hits with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Brett Baty has 22 hits with 5 doubles, a triple and 12 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 30 hits with 6 doubles, 2 home runs and 13 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 36 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 16 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 25 hits with 4 doubles and 4 home runs this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from a 4-2 loss at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out to sit at 17-19 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Diamondbacks Lose 6 Of Last 7

Corbin Carroll has 32 hits including 7 doubles, 4 triples, 5 home runs and 20 RBIs while Alek Thomas has logged 9 doubles with 2 home runs and 10 RBIs as well this season. Ketel Marte has 29 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 13 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 26 hits, with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 2 home runs and 11 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 31 hits with 3 doubles, 5 home runs and 17 RBIs and Jose Fernandez has 28 hits with 3 home runs and 12 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 41 hits with 7 doubles, 2 triples, 6 home runs and 22 RBIs.

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: May 8, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryne Nelson      Record this season: 1-3      ERA: 6.61
• Home Record: 0-2
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 2.97
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last six road games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in four of their last five night games against NL East opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last nine games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Mets and Diamondbacks at Chase Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games at Chase Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight night games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ildemaro Vargas has hit at least one home run in each of the Diamondbacks’ last two night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.360) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Semien has hit a home run in each of his last three road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Marcus Semien has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Nolan McLean ranks T10th in the league for total Strikeouts (51) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (99).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.351).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (134).

New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the Mets here. I just can’t trust Ryne Nelson at home, as he has an ERA over 14 at home this season and the Mets have shown signs of improvement offensively in recent weeks. I think McLean’s the better starting option by a mile and I think we get a Mets W in this one so give me New York here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: NY Mets -125