MLB Player Prop Picks (Pitcher Props) 9/11/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

Yusei Kikuchi Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners 9:40 PM EST

Yusei Kikuchi’s season has been a mix of strong stretches and tough inconsistencies. Over the course of 30 starts, he logged 161.2 innings, with a 6–11 record, a 4.18 ERA, 163 strikeouts, and a 1.48 WHIP. He has been terrible as of late, allowing 4 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. In his last start, he allowed 7 earned runs against the Athletics. This is a spot I want to buy low on Kikuchi. He’ll be pitching in T-Mobile Park, which is arguably the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league. Also, this Mariners lineup has been streaky as of late, and this series has been low scoring. Let’s buy low on Kikuchi to have a nice bounce-back game.

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Gavin Williams Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians 7:15 PM EST

Over 28 starts, comes into this one 10–5, backed by an impressive 3.17 ERA and a WHIP of 1.29 across 150.2 innings pitched, ranking him well within the top third among MLB starters in those categories. He’s coming off back-to-back starts where he gave up only 1 earned run in each of those starts. This is a great spot for Williams to continue his success. He’ll be up against this Royals lineup that ranks in the bottom 10 in almost every major offensive category. Pitchers have been carving up this Royals lineup all season long, and I don’t see that changing in this one. 

Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 K’s

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 7:15 PM EST

Jesus Luzardo is putting together a strong and steady season for the Phillies. He comes into this one with a 13–6 record, a 4.01 ERA, 190 strikeouts, and a 1.29 WHIP. The Mets have continued to struggle away from Citi Field, and they’ve looked lethargic at the plate in this series. I don’t expect the Mets’ bats to come alive in this one, and if that’s the case, I do expect Luzardo to go far in this game. Luzardo’s strikeout arsenal has been filthy as of late, logging 7+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts. Let’s ride the hot hand and continue to fade these Mets bats on the road.