Miles Mikolas Over 2.5 Earned Runs
St. Louis Cardnials vs Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM EST

Miles Mikolas has delivered a steady but unspectacular performance for the St. Louis Cardinals during the 2025 season. Through 15 starts, he holds a 4–5 record with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 77.1 innings. He’s struck out 51 batters while issuing 19 walks and surrendering 7 home runs, resulting in a modest 5.94 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9. His month-to-month results reflect his inconsistency; he struggled in April with a 4.94 ERA, rebounded in May with a strong 3.08 ERA, but faltered again in June with a 5.32 ERA. We’ve seen Mikolas give up 3+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts, and he is coming off a start where he gave up 6 runs against a bad Guardians offense. Mikolas is starting to look like his old self, and I don’t expect him to bounce back against this Cubs offense in these hitter-friendly weather conditions.

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Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers 7:10 PM EST

Sandy Alcántara, the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner, has endured a challenging bounce-back season following Tommy John surgery, making 15 starts with a 4–8 record, 6.69 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP over 74 innings, while accumulating 59 strikeouts and 34 walks. Situation-wise, he dominates with the bases empty, posting a 1.16 ERA in those cases, but has been nearly impossible to manage when runners are on base, especially in high-leverage moments where his ERA balloons above 28 , reflecting major struggles under pressure. He’s coming off a start where he allowed 7 earned runs against the D-backs. I’ve made so much money fading Alcantara this season and I won’t stop in this spot with him going against a Brewers team that has played exceptionally well over the last couple of weeks. 

Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 K’s
Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres 6:40 PM EST

Randy Vásquez has established himself as a durable mid-rotation starter for the Padres this year, making 14 starts and logging 84.1 innings with a 3–4 record, a 3.57 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. He’s struck out 41 batters (5.2 K/9) and issued 35 walks (4.39 BB/9), while allowing nine home runs. Vásquez’s splits reflect clear platoon and situational differences: he’s far more effective against right-handed hitters (2.77 ERA) than lefties (4.30 ERA). Even though Vasquez’s ERA doesn’t look terrible on paper, but we have to remember that he pitches at a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Rangers’ bats came alive this week against the Orioles, and if these bats remain hot, the league needs to watch out for Texas. Vasquez has failed to log over 3 strikeouts in 5 of his last 6 starts. I expect the Rangers to get after Vasquez early in this one.  

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above