Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 K’s
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates 6:40 PM EST

Blackburn began the year on the 15-day injured list with knee inflammation, then made a rehab start and joined the Mets’ bullpen, later shifting into a sixth-starter role when Kodai Senga went down on June 13th. Despite inconsistency, his last two outings saw three earned runs allowed in under five innings each. Blackburn is coming off his best strikeout performance of the season, logging 5 K’s against the Atlanta Braves. I expect him to carry that momentum into Pittsburgh, going against this Pirates team that has struggled at the plate and strikeout at a high rate. 

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Randy Vasquez Over 2.5 Earned Runs
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds 7:10 PM EST

Randy Vásquez has emerged as a serviceable mid-rotation starter for San Diego, making 14 starts and logging 68.0 innings with a 3–4 record, 3.57 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP. Even though Vasquez’s numbers don’t look alarming on paper, he’s still one of the more volatile pitchers in the league. We also have to remember that he pitches a lot of his games at Petco Park, which is a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Now he gets this start in Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. I can see Vasquez getting hit up early and often in this game. 

Sandy Alcantara Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 PM EST

Sandy Alcántara, the 2022 Cy Young Award winner, returned from Tommy John surgery but has struggled significantly this season. Over 14 starts and 68.0 innings, he’s posted a 3–8 record, a lofty 6.88 ERA, and a 1.47 WHIP, while recording 55 strikeouts against 32 walks. Alcántara’s season splits reveal pronounced home-road disparity. At home, over 42.1 IP, he has a 5.10 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but on the road, his ERA balloons to 9.82 with a 2.00 WHIP. He now has a very difficult start in this one, going against a strong Diamondbacks lineup at Chase Field, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. I can see Alcantara getting hit up in this one.

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