Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Prediction 5/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, May 7th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 17-20 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL East. They have a 5-13 home record and are coming off a 15-2 win at home against the Twins. They will face the Marlins and the Reds next.

The Nationals have a .241 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .395 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.82 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 33. James Wood adds a team‑high 10 home runs.

Jake Irvin (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 1-4 record, 4.93 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 16-21 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the AL Central. They have a 6-11 away record and are coming off a 2-15 loss on the road against the Nationals. They will face the Guardians and the Marlins next.

The Twins have a .233 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.72 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Brooks Lee is the team’s best hitter with a .261 batting average. Ryan Jeffers leads the team in RBI with 21, and Byron Buxton adds a team‑high 11 home runs.

Simeon Woods Richardson (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins, and he has a 0-5 record, 6.49 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: May 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jake Irvin      Record this season: 1-4      ERA: 4.93
• Home Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Twins: 1-1

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Twins have lost each of their last six road games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have won eight of their last nine day games against AL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line each of their last six day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in each of their last four games as favorites against the Twins at Nationals Park.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as road underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods-Richardson      Record this season: 0-5      ERA: 6.49
• Road Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Nationals: 0-0

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last 10 home games following a win.
• The Twins have won six of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games following a win.
• The Twins have covered the run line in six of their last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home games against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last 11 day games at Nationals Park against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Eleven of the Nationals’ last 12 home games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Twins’ last seven games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last eight Thursday games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of Jake Irvin’s last seven appearances as a starter.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in two of the Nationals’ last three games against the Twins.
• Jacob Young has recorded at least one hit in each of the Nationals’ last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Nasim Nunez ranks T1st in the league in Steals (14) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit a home run in three of the Twins’ last four games as underdogs.
• Victor Caratini has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Thursday appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Byron Buxton ranks T6th in the league in Home Runs (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (54).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for runs allowed this season (210).
• The Twins rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (49).
• The Twins rank 27th in the league for runs allowed this season (188).

Twins vs Nationals Prediction

The Nationals are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Twins, but the Twins are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Washington.

In this Twins vs Nationals Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. Both teams have split wins in this series and I don’t trust either pitching in today’s matchup, as they both have a combined 11.42 ERA. They both have a combined 1-9 record this season and Irvin has been terrible at home and both teams are bottom-8 in bullpen ERA and average 10.2 runs/9 against right-handed pitching combined. This sets up for a high-scoring affair, so take the over 9 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 9