Jul 2, 2025; New York City, New York, USA;  The New York Mets celebrate after defeating the Milwaukee Brewers 7-3 at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction 07/03/2025 Picks

Pick details

Milwaukee (48-38) vs New York (49-38)

July 3, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: New York -1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5

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The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets meet Thursday in MLB action at Citi Field. Here’s a Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction. This article will include a Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Pick.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 48-38 on the year and play the Marlins, Dodgers, and Nationals next. The Milwaukee Brewers are batting .247 on the season, have a .323 OBP, and a .383 slugging percentage. The Milwaukee Brewers pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Jackson Chourio leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 92 hits and 51 RBI, while Sal Frelick and Brice Turang have combined for 181 hits and 71 RBI. 

Jose Quintana gets the ball for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he is 6-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 41 strikeouts this season. Quintana is 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his career against the Los Angeles Angels.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 49-38 on the year and play the Yankees, Orioles, and Royals next. The New York Mets are batting .243 on the season, have a .323 OBP, and a .414 slugging percentage. The New York Mets pitching staff has a 3.50 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Pete Alonso leads the New York Mets with 94 hits and 66 RBI while Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have combined for 168 hits and 93 RBI.

David Peterson gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 5-4 with a 3.30 ERA and 83 strikeouts this season. Peterson is 2-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 22 strikeouts in his career against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Why the New York Mets will win

The Mets have won each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a home win.
The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight Thursday night games against teams that held a winning record.
The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

The underdogs have won each of the last seven games between the Brewers and Mets at Citi Field.
The Mets have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against the Brewers at Citi Field following a home win.
The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 12 Thursday games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last three night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Brandon Nimmo has recorded two hits in each of the Mets’ last four night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

Jackson Chourio has hit a home run in each of the Brewers’ last two night games.
Rhys Hoskins has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances.
Jose Quintana has recorded four or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against former teams.
William Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers’ last nine games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
Jose Quintana has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against former teams.

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Prediction

This pitching matchup doesn’t do much for me, but I’m going to lean toward the Mets because they’re too talented of a team to continue these losses. Maybe a win yesterday was the turning point. Quintana has had a strong season, but I’m not bought in the 36-year-old just yet, and he has allowed 27 hits and 12 earned runs in his last 26 innings. Peterson has been rough in his last three starts, but he has a 2.22 ERA and .239 allowed batting average in 48.2 home innings. Even with recent struggles, Peterson has a 3.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the season. Give me the Mets. 

Randy Chambers's Pick: New York Mets

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