Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 5/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, May 17th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 29-15 record this season and are sitting in the first place of the AL East. They have a 15-5 home record and are coming off a 5-10 loss at home against the Marlins. They will face the Orioles and the Yankees next.

The Rays have a .259 batting average this season, .331 OBP and .382 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .304 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 34, and Junior Caminero adds a team‑high 11 home runs.

Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 3-1 record, 3.16 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 21-25 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the NL East. They have a 7-13 away record and are coming off a 10-5 win on the road against the Rays. They will face the Braves and the Mets next.

The Marlins have a .242 batting average this season, .319 OBP and .371 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.24 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .341 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 40, also adding a team‑high 9 home runs.

Eury Perez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 2-5 record, 4.94 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.

Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: May 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 3-1      ERA: 3.16
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Marlins: 2-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 12 day games at Tropicana Field after going to extra innings.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last six road games against the Rays following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 day games at Tropicana Field after going to extra innings.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez      Record this season: 2-5      ERA: 4.94
• Road Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Rays: –

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Rays have lost five of their last six games as home favorites following a home loss.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last 11 Sunday games against AL East opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last seven games as underdogs against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Rays’ last eight games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of Drew Rasmussen’s last eight home appearances as a starter.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three games against the Marlins.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 4th in the league in Steals (14) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last six appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 10 road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (61) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (56).
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (317).
• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (52).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (10).

Marlins vs Rays Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and are 3-3 in their last 6 meetings in Tampa.

In this Marlins vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -160 home favorites. The Marlins won yesterday and the Rays have the pitching advantage today with Drew Rasmussen on the mound and he goes up against a struggling Eury Perez who has given up 3+ runs in three of his last four starts. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Rays, who have been one of the best teams in baseball this season, as they have the pitching advantage and the better offense playing at home. Take the Rays on the moneyline.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML