Mets vs Pirates Prediction 8/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 7th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 50-66 this season after they swept the Guardians in three games by scores of 6-2, 6-5, and 13-6. In game three, New York had their lead cut to 6-5 in the fifth inning, but they scored the next seven runs to pull away with the win. The Mets recorded 18 hits in the game and they were led by Lindor, who went 2-6 with one home run and three RBIs. McLean allowed eight hits and five earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Lavender picked up a hold. Prior to that series, New York lost three out of four against the Marlins, but did win two out of three against the Braves before that. 

This season, New York has a 4.09 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 482 runs with a .234 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Juan Soto (IL) has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 11 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Zac Thornton, who is 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 34.1 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 57-60 this year after they lost three out of four against the Brewers by scores of 4-3, 2-4, 2-4, and 2-5. In game three, Pittsburgh tied the game at two in the fourth inning, but they failed to score in the last five innings for the loss. The Pirates recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Horwitz, who went 1-3 with one RBI. Ashcraft allowed four hits and four earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Soto allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh lost three out of four against the Reds and two out of three against the Diamondbacks. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.31 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while they have scored 588 runs with a .256 batting average and a .333 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 24 home runs and 72 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 17 home runs and 69 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 6-3 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 94.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have won each of their last four home games against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against the Mets.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games against the Mets at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday games against the Mets at PNC Park.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last nine Friday night games against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have won five of the Mets’ last six games.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Pirates’ last six games at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight Friday night games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Mets and Pirates at PNC Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Mets’ last nine night games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Carmen Mlodzinski has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at PNC Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last three home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four road games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 11 games against NL Central opponents.

Mets vs Pirates Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup after sweeping the Guardians and they scored 25 runs in those three games. The Mets are 25-32 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 29-28 at home. Pittsburgh has lost four of their last five games and they have scored two runs in all four of those losses. The Pirates are starting Mlodzinski, who will only pitch a few innings, while Thornton has allowed six earned runs in his last 24.0 innings. I am going to take the Pirates, but their offense is a concern.

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML