Mets vs Phillies Prediction 6/18/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, June 18th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 33-41 this season after they lost two out of three against the Reds by scores of 0-12, 3-5, and 9-1. In game three, New York scored three runs in the third inning and they added four more in the fifth to blow the game open for the win. The Mets recorded 15 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Soto, who went 3-5 with two RBIs. McLean allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Warren threw a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to that series, New York won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Cardinals before that. 

This season, New York has a 3.93 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while they have scored 300 runs with a .232 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Juan Soto has led the Mets with 15 home runs and 36 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added eight home runs and 42 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 1-2 with a 4.78 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 49.0 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 40-34 this year after they won two out of three against the Marlins by scores of 7-0, 8-2, and 4-12. In game three, Philadelphia cut the deficit to 6-4 in the second inning, but they allowed the next six runs for the lopsided loss. The Phillies recorded 10 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Bohm, who went 2-4 with one RBI. Painter allowed six hits and six earned runs over 2.0 innings for the loss, while Shugart allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, Philadelphia lost two out of three against the Brewers, but did win two out of three against the Blue Jays before that. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.09 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average, while they have scored 304 runs with a .229 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 25 home runs and 43 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 15 home runs and 40 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 3-4 with a 5.86 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP over 70.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight games following a loss.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Thursday games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against National League opponents.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight night games following a home loss.
• The Mets have won three of their last four games as road underdogs following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs following a road win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against NL East opponents following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last four road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Phillies’ last 11 night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of Sean Manaea’s last 10 road appearances as a starter.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of Aaron Nola’s last six appearances as a starter against the Mets.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in six of the Phillies’ last seven games at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in 17 of his last 19 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Mets.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Marcus Semien has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded two or more hits in each of the Mets’ last six games against NL opponents.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against the Phillies.

Mets vs Phillies Prediction 

New York was able to avoid getting swept with a win on Wednesday afternoon, but they have lost three of their last five games. The Mets are 15-23 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 21-18 at home. Philadelphia has won three of their last five games and they have scored at least seven runs in all three of those wins. The Phillies are starting Nola, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts, while Manaea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. Take the Mets here, as I am going to fade Nola.

David Racey's Pick: Mets ML