Mets vs Marlins Prediction 9/27/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 27th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 82-78 this year after they lost game one by a score of 6-2 on Friday night. New York led 2-0 in the first inning, but went scoreless over the last eight innings for the loss. The Mets recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Alonso and Lindor, who both had one RBI in the loss. New York started Sproat, who allowed five hits and four earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Soto allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Mets won two out of three against the Cubs, but lost two out of three against the Nationals before that. New York has lost four of their last six games and they are second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 761 runs with a .250 batting average and a .326 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 37 home runs and 124 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 43 home runs and 105 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who is 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 159.2 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 78-82 this season after they won game one by a score of 6-2 on Friday. Miami scored all six runs in the fifth inning, which was enough to get the win. The Marlins recorded 10 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Norby and Hernandez, who both had two RBIs in the win. Miami started Alcantara, who allowed six hits and two earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Phillips picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Phillies, but did sweep the Rangers in three games before that. Miami has won eight of their last ten games and they are third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 705 runs with a .251 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers (IL) has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 21 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 7-5 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 90.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins 

The Marlins have lost 11 of their last 12 home games against the Mets following a home win.
The Mets have won nine of their last 10 road games against the Marlins following a road loss.
The road team has covered the run line in seven of the Marlins’ last nine games.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 12 home games against the Mets following a home win.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in 11 of their last 14 games against NL East opponents.
The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

Eight of the Mets’ last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Mets and Marlins at LoanDepot Park.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four road games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in seven of his last eight home appearances.
Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in three of his last seven home appearances with the Marlins against NL opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games against NL opponents.
Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 20 games against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

New York’s offense took the last eight innings off on Friday night, so they will look for a better effort here. The Mets are 33-46 on the road this year, while the Marlins are 37-42 at home. Miami has won eight of their last ten games and they are starting Perez, who has allowed zero earned runs in back to back starts. New York is going with Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs in his last 8.2 innings. The Mets desperately need wins to get into the postseason and I think they will get one here, as I don’t fully trust Perez right now.