Marlins vs Rays Prediction 5/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 16th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 20-25 this year after they lost game one by a score of 7-2 on Friday night. Miami cut the deficit to 2-1 in the second inning, but they allowed the next five runs in the loss. The Marlins recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Marsee, who went 3-4 with one home run and one RBI. Junk allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Nardi threw a scoreless eighth inning. Prior to this series, Miami lost two out of three against the Twins, but did win two out of three against the Nationals before that. 

This season, Miami has a 4.24 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP and a .227 opponent batting average, while they have scored 188 runs with a .242 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with nine home runs and 38 RBIs, while Otto Lopez has added four home runs and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 3-2 with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 57.2 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 29-14 this season after they won game one by a score of 7-2 last night. Tampa Bay scored four runs in the first two innings and they never looked back in the lopsided win. The Rays recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Walls, who went 1-3 with three RBIs. Scholtens allowed five hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the win, while Legumina threw two scoreless innings in relief. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay won two out of three against the Blue Jays and two out of three against the Red Sox. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.48 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a .218 opponent batting average, while they have scored 196 runs with a .259 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with eight home runs and 33 RBIs, while Yandy Diaz has added six home runs and 26 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Nick Martinez, who is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 47.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last 11 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Marlins have lost nine of their last 11 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Rays have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have won four of their last five day games following a loss.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against the Marlins following a win.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Marlins’ last nine games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Rays’ last eight home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Nick Martinez’s five previous appearances as a starter against the Marlins.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four road games against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in 18 of his last 19 appearances in day games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against AL East opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Esteury Ruiz has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.

Marlins vs Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay was able to open this series with a win on Friday night and they continue to have one of the best records in all of baseball. The Rays are 15-4 at home this year, while the Marlins are 6-13 on the road. Miami has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 21 runs in their last three games. The Marlins are starting Alcantara, who has allowed 2, 7, 2, 3, and 2 earned runs in his last five starts, while Martinez has allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight outings. Take the Rays at home here.

David Racey's Pick: Rays ML