Marlins vs Mets Prediction 7/31/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 31st at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 55-55 this year after they lost game one by a score of 2-4 on Thursday night. Miami led 1-0 in the fourth inning, but only scored one run in the last five innings for the loss. The Marlins recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Stowers, who went 1-3 with one home run and one RBI. Perez allowed three hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Petersen picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Miami swept the Phillies in three games, but lost all three against the Padres before that. 

This season, Miami has a 4.08 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while they have scored 483 runs with a .251 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Otto Lopez has added nine home runs and 50 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Janson Junk, who is 4-6 with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 73.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 47-63 this season after they won game one by a score of 4-2 last night. New York blew a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning, but they scored two runs in the eighth to get the win. The Mets recorded six hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Robert Jr, who went 1-4 with two RBIs. McLean allowed six hits and two earned runs over 6.1 innings, while Raley got the win and Williams picked up the save. Prior to this series, New York won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Dodgers before that. 

This season, New York has a 4.11 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they have scored 453 runs with a .233 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Juan Soto (IL) has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 53 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Freddy Peralta, who is 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 113.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last seven road games.
• The home team has won nine of the last 10 games between the Marlins and Mets.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against the Marlins at Citi Field.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won three of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four night games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in six of their last eight night games at Citi Field following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the last 11 games between the Marlins and Mets have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Thirteen of the Marlins’ last 16 games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last seven Friday games against NL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six home games against NL East opponents.

Marlins vs Mets Prediction

New York was able to start this series with a win on Thursday night and they have won four of their last five games. The Mets are 25-31 at home this year, while the Marlins are 21-32 on the road. Miami has won three of their last four games, but they have played pretty poorly over the last three weeks. The Marlins are starting Junk, who has allowed 1, 6, 1, 1, and 8 earned runs in his last five starts, while Peralta has allowed 2, 7, 2, 1, and 5 earned runs in his last five outings. I don’t really trust either pitcher, but the Mets are the much hotter team. Take New York to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Mets ML