Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 9/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays meet Friday in MLB action at Tropicana Field. Here’s a Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction. This article will include a Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 75-72 on the year and play the Royals and Braves next. The Houston Astros are batting .241 on the season, have a .315 OBP, and have a .410 slugging percentage. The Houston Astros’ pitching staff has a 4.52 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez leads the Houston Astros with 162 hits and 96 RBI, while Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have combined for 251 hits and 162 RBI.

Miguel Ullola gets the ball for the Houston Astros, and he is 0-0 with a 3.85 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. This will be Ullola’s first career game against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 87-59 on the year and play the Red Sox and Athletics next. The Tampa Bay Rays are batting .260 on the season, have a .329 OBP, and have a .404 slugging percentage. The Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. Yandy Diaz leads the Tampa Bay Rays with 171 hits and 80 RBI, while Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero have combined for 316 hits and 124 RBI.

Drew Rasmussen gets the ball for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he is 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 156 strikeouts this season. Rasmussen is 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA and 18 strikeouts in his career against the Houston Astros.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won seven of their last eight night games at Tropicana Field following a loss.
• The Astros have lost six of their last seven night games against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home favorites following a road loss.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against AL opponents following a win.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against AL opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against AL opponents.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Astros have won eight of their last nine games at Tropicana Field.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as home favorites against AL opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Rays.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six home games against AL opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Astros’ last eight games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Rays’ last five games as favorites against the Astros have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 12 of the Astros’ last 13 night games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Rays’ last six games as favorites against AL opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Richie Palacios has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four night games.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jonathan Aranda has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last nine home games against AL West opponents.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as favorites against AL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz ranks 3rd in the league in Hits (171) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Cam Smith has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three road games.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last eight games against the Rays at Tropicana Field.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.427) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1017).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (366).
• The Astros rank 5th in the league for home runs this season (193).
• The Astros rank 5th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.410).

Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

I don’t trust a rookie who has just 7 career innings under his belt on the road and in the thick of the playoff race. The Rays have been ridiculous at home, and Rasmussen is the far and away more trustworthy arm with a 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Rays have won 9 straight games with Rasmussen on the mound. I have to side with the Rays in this spot, and of course I’ll lay the RL to shave down the price.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5