Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 6/29/24

In this article we will formulate a Houston Astros vs New York Mets prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, June 29th at Citi Field in New York. To formulate this prediction for game two in the series, we will examine:

• The Mets recent form and recent player performance 
• The Astros recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Houston
• Recent betting trends in games played between New York and Houston
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between New York and Houston

Mets Looking for Five Straight Wins 

The New York Mets are 40-39 this year and they have won four games in a row. New York won game one in this series by a score of 7-2 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Mets won both games against the Yankees, won two out of three against the Cubs, and won two out of three against the Rangers. New York is 12-2 in their last 14 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.06 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 382 runs with a .251 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .241 with 17 home runs and 44 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least seven runs in seven of their last ten games. 

Astros Win Streak Snapped 

The Houston Astros are 40-41 this season and they have won seven of their last eight games. Houston dropped game one in this series on Friday, which snapped their seven game winning streak. Prior to this series, the Astros won both games against the Rockies, won all three against the Orioles, and won two out of three against the White Sox. Houston has climbed up to second in the AL West, 5.5 games behind Seattle. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 4.07 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 369 runs with a .264 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .294 with 16 home runs and 41 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston has scored at least five runs in six of their last seven games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tylor Megill, who is 2-4 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 33.2 innings pitched this year. Megill has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Framber Valdez, who is 6-5 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 80.2 innings pitched this season. Valdez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Why the Astros will beat the Mets

• The Astros have won each of their last six day games following a loss.
• The Mets have lost each of their last five day games against AL West opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 Saturday games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six day games following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Astros’ last four games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last four games as underdogs against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last three day games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Double in four of the Mets’ last five games at Citi Field.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Mets’ last eight games at Citi Field.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs.
• Tylor Megill has recorded five or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Mets as home underdogs.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last eight games against AL West opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Chas McCormick has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Astros’ last five games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Framber Valdez has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Framber Valdez has recorded nine or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Astros’ last 10 games as favorites against the Mets.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last eight road games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one total base in each of the Astros’ last eight day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The New York Mets rank 4th in the league for home runs this season (100).
• The New York Mets are one of only 5 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (733).
• The Houston Astros rank 4th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.423).

Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction 

New York was able to stay hot and get the win in game one of this series, which snapped the Houston winning streak. The Astros are just 16-22 on the road, while New York is 21-23 at home. The Mets have been red hot offensively over the last two weeks, but they will go up against Valdez, who has been very good. Houston hasn’t been quite as hot as New York offensively, but they have still done a very good job over the last week. The Mets are starting Megill, who I have some concerns about, especially with his 1.43 WHIP. My Houston Astros vs New York Mets prediction is for the Astros to bounce back with a win. 

David Racey's Pick: Astros ML