Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction MLB Picks 9/29/24

In this article we will formulate a Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 29th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. To formulate this prediction for game three in the series, we will examine:

• The Astros recent form and recent player performance 
• The Guardians recent form and recent play performance
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Houston
• Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Cleveland
• Recent betting trends in games played between Houston and Cleveland
• A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Houston and Cleveland

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 88-73 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Houston has won the first two games in this series by scores of 5-2 and 4-3. Prior to this series, the Astros lost two out of three against the Mariners, won three out of four against the Angels, and lost two out of three against the Padres. Houston is 6-3 in their last nine games and they have clinched the AL West. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .231 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 740 runs with a .262 batting average and a .322 on base percentage. Alex Bregman is batting .260 with 26 home runs and 75 RBI’s for the Astros this season.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 92-69 this year and they have split their last four games. Cleveland has lost the first two games in this series and they have scored just five runs in the two games. Prior to this series, the Guardians won both games against Cincinnati, lost two out of three against the Cardinals, and won three out of four against the Twins. Cleveland is 5-4 in their last nine games and they have clinched the AL Central. 

The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Guardians offense has scored 708 runs with a .238 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .279 with 39 home runs and 118 RBI’s for the Guardians this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Ryan Gusto, who is making his first appearance for the Astros this season. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Nick Sandlin, who is 8-0 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 57.2 innings pitched this season. Sandlin has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last five appearances, but should only pitch one inning here. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Astros

• The Guardians have won eight of their last nine day games against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have lost each of their last three day games after playing the previous day.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last eight Sunday day games against the Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Astros’ last nine road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Guardians’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last five day games against American League opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in two of the Guardians’ last three games.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Naylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in day games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five home appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
• Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 12 appearances at Progressive Field against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three home appearances against the Astros after playing the previous day.
• Steven Kwan has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians’ last four day games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has hit at least one home run in four of his last six appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances in day games.
• Jon Singleton has recorded at least one RBI in each of his three previous appearances at Progressive Field against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Altuve has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three road appearances against the Guardians.

Houston Astros vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 

Houston has won the first two games in this series and they have played very well to close out the regular season. The Astros are 42-38 on the road this season, while the Guardians are 50-30 at home. Both of these teams are headed to the postseason and their seeds are set, so this game means very little for both sides. I don’t love either side in this matchup, but I am going to side with Cleveland and their stellar home record. 

David Racey's Pick: Guardians ML