Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction MLB Picks 9/20/24

The Cleveland Guardians and the St. Louis Cardinals meet Friday in MLB action from Busch Stadium. Here’s a Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Guardians vs Cardinals pick. We will examine:

The Cleveland Guardians’ recent form and player performance

The St. Louis Cardinals’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cleveland Guardians

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the St. Louis Cardinals

Recent betting trends in games played between the Guardians and Cardinals

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Guardians vs Cardinals game

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Guardians are fresh off a four-game series versus the Minnesota Twins. Cleveland split the first two games, then on Wednesday took a close win 5-4. In the finale, the Guardians posted a walk-off 10-inning victory 3-2. Starter Joey Cantillo finished with 4.1 innings and one earned run.

Ben Lively will take the starter role for the Guardians on Friday. This year Lively is 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA in 27 starts. Over 72 career games (59 starts) Lively is 20-26 with a 4.57 ERA.

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

Over on the Cardinals’ side, they played the Pittsburgh Pirates in their last series. St. Louis won the first two 4-0 and 3-1, then in game three kept it going with a 10-5 victory. In the finale, the Cards fell 3-2. Erick Fedde put up 6.0 innings with one earned run in the start.

It’ll be Kyle Gibson in the starter slot for the Cardinals on Friday. This year Gibson is 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA in 28 starts. Over 328 career games (322 starts) Gibson is 112-107 with a 4.51 ERA.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Guardians have lost eight of their last nine road games following an extra-innings win.
• The Cardinals have won each of their last four night games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in four of their last five games.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last four home games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have won five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last three road games after playing the previous day.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Cardinals’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total run line.
• Nine of the Guardians’ last 11 road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last seven home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last three night games at Busch Stadium.

Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

I’ll try the Cardinals here. Gibson has been doing a good job on the mound lately even though he’s just 1-1 in his last three. Over that time Gibson has given up just two earned in 19.0 total innings. As for Lively, he’s got zero earned over 7.0 innings in his last two appearances, going 1-0 in that pair.

On Thursday the Cardinals had a pretty slow offensive day with six team hits—and four of those belonged to Brendan Donovan (two RBI). Paul Goldschmidt (two runs) had the other pair. The rest of the order needs to wake up for Friday’s opener.

Andrew Jett's Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -115